Relegated Norwich host a West Ham team reeling from midweek European disappointment. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Norwich, already relegated, host a West Ham side reeling from a Europa League exit on Sunday, meaning confidence will be low in both camps.
The Canaries went down with a whimper at Aston Villa last weekend (xG: AVL 2.05 - 0.43 NOR), and have been the worst team this season on all major metrics.
In fact, their xGD per game of -1.16 means they are currently on pace to be the worst Premier League team Infogol has seen since data collection began in 2014.
The current holders of that title are Hull's 16/17 side who finished the campaign with an xGD per game of -1.02.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
Having been relegated already, we could see a freedom that may yield better results, but the fact of the matter is, Norwich just aren't good enough for this level.
Even with the pressure off, I'm not expecting an upturn in results or performances.
West Ham have to overcome their own disappointment here, but have a near fully-fit squad available for a final league push, with them six points behind sixth placed Manchester United with a game in hand, and three clear of Wolves having played a game more.
Securing European football for next season is now the goal, so we can expect the Hammers to go all-out in their final three matches, starting here.
They may have lost three of their last four, but the Hammers have been competitive in all of those defeats against much better teams than Norwich (Brentford, Chelsea and Arsenal).
Away form hasn't been great in general of late, but they have had their attentions elsewhere, whereas now their focus is solely on the league.
Their xG process this term is 1.51 xGF and 1.50 xGA per game, so chances at either end have been the norm, though given Norwich's issues in attack, we may see opportunities arise at only one end on Sunday.
The 9/4 available for WEST HAM TO WIN TO NIL makes appeal.
Clean sheets aren't what you would usually associate with West Ham, but they rarely get to play a team as poor as Norwich.
Plus, the Hammers will be able to field a stronger team than in recent weeks, which should lead to a dominant display and a comfortable win.
Norwich v West Ham best bets and score prediction
1pt West Ham to win to nil at 9/4 (bet365, BetVictor)
Score prediction: Norwich 0-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (05/05/22)
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