Tottenham know a draw would realistically be enough for them to secure fourth spot as they head to Norwich on Sunday. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting a best bet.
Tottenham's task in this game is pretty straightforward - avoid defeat.
Surely Spurs can't go all 'Spursy' and mess this one up against the worst team in the league can they?
Well, anything is possible, but that outcome seems incredibly unlikely, especially with Antonio Conte overseeing proceedings.
Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
I took a data deep dive into the immense improvements made at Tottenham by Conte, which highlighted that he is in fact the Spurs manager over the past six years who boasts the best underlying process.
Their process of 1.99 xGF and 1.15 xGA per game under the Italian is the third best in the league since his appointment, while Spurs have also had plenty of success on their travels (1.68 xGF, 1.05 xGA per away game).
All of that bodes extremely well ahead of a trip to bottom side Norwich, who are on track to rank as the worst Premier League team Infogol has seen since data collection began.
The Canaries currently possess an xGD per game of -1.14, which if maintained, would break the record held by Hull's 16/17 team (-1.02) for worst top flight team in the history of Infogol.
It has been yet another sorry season for Norwich in the top flight, even at home, where they have averaged 1.02 xGF and 1.89 xGA per game, losing 12 of 18.
They are unlikely to put up much resistance against a Spurs team in good form and looking to secure Champions League football, but to say how bad they have been, Norwich have rarely been involved in majorly high-scoring games this term at home.
UNDER 3.5 GOALS has landed in 12 of 18 at Carrow Road, while it has landed in eight of Tottenham's 13 away games under Conte, so combining that with a TOTTENHAM WIN looks the way in here.
Spurs are fancied to win this with ease and in control, and while win to nil did appeal at a shorter 23/20, the bigger price and slightly wider margin for error appealed.
By taking Spurs to win and Under 3.5 Goals we get the 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 and 0-3 scorelines on side, and the 1-2 is priced as the third most likely final score by the bookies, so covering that seems the smart play.
A bigger Spurs win would scupper this bet, but I'm happy to chance a controlled and professional performance from the visitors against a home team who will show up for their final home game of the season.
Norwich v Tottenham score prediction and best bets
- 1.5pts Tottenham to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 27/20 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Norwich 0-3 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1700 BST (18/05/22)
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