Bottom side Norwich host Aston Villa on Tuesday, with Dean Smith welcoming his old team, and Jake Osgathorpe thinks the visitors will add to the hosts woes.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 2/1 (bet365)
Norwich's honeymoon period under Dean Smith is now over, with successive defeats and a record of one goal scored in four games meaning the Canaries are back at the foot of the table.
Issues at both ends have plagued Norwich all season long, and will continue to do so, as they just aren't good enough for this level - as harsh as that sounds.
They are generating a league-low 1.01 xGF per game this term, and that kind of attacking process isn't going to see them win many matches.
Aston Villa are in town after their hard-fought 1-0 loss at Anfield, looking to again kick on under Steven Gerrard.
They have lost only two games under the Liverpool legend, both against the current top two, with the Villains winning the other three against mid-table sides.
Gerrard and his players should therefore relish the chance to play against one of the league's worst operators, while also wanting to get one over their old boss - Smith was in Gerrard's chair only five weeks ago.
While they were somewhat fortunate to only lose by one at Anfield, conceding plenty of good chances, on the whole Gerrard has done a good job of shoring up what was a porous defence.
That was his first port of call, and attentions must now turn to the other end of the pitch where they had also been having issues.
A strong attacking display against Leicester (2.23 xGF) was a huge boost, and went some way to showing what they are capable of, but we need to see more consistency before fully trusting them.
That is why, despite them priced at a backable 13/10 to win this game, I am happy to take a bigger price available.
Given the likely dearth of goals in this game, backing ASTON VILLA TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 2/1 appeals.
Villa shouldn't have an issue keeping a weak Norwich attack at bay, but by the same token, haven't shown enough themselves in attack to suggest they could blow the Canaries away.
This bet has landed in all three of Villa's wins under Gerrard, while all five of his games in charge have seen Under 3.5 Goals.
Norwich v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Aston Villa to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 2/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Norwich 0-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (13/12/21)
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