Northern Ireland finish their World Cup qualification campaign with two home matches, with Lithuania the first visitors. Jake Pearson has previewed the match and picked out a best bet.
Group C was always going to be a difficult one to navigate for Northern Ireland, drawn against European champions Italy, as well as an above average Switzerland team.
It has certainly proved to be the case as well, the two highest seeded teams in the group having already cemented their position as the top two of the group, meaning all that is left to play for is pride.
Ian Baraclough’s men have endured a torrid qualification campaign, winning just once so far, away in Lithuania back in September, and they are without a win in their last three competitive internationals, including a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Bulgaria last time out.
They currently sit second bottom in Group C, but a win for Lithuania would take the minnows above Baraclough’s men with a game still to play, and with Ireland’s final fixture being against Italy, that would be a far from ideal scenario.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Though they cannot qualify, finishing bottom of a group containing officially the eighth worst team in Europe – according to the FIFA Rankings – would be a huge embarrassment, so expect Northern Ireland to play with a fair amount of determination in front of their own fans on Friday evening.
Yes, it has been a poor campaign for Northern Ireland, but defensively there has been plenty to be encouraged by, their seven goals conceded bettered only by 15 teams.
For Lithuania, this represents an opportunity to climb ahead of Northern Ireland in the group, but the quality they have at their disposal offers little encouragement that a victory could actually materialise.
In fact, they have found the net on just four occasions – only San Marino, Gibraltar, Liechtenstein and Cyprus have returned a lower goal tally in European World Cup qualifying – and those four goals did come across two matches, drawing a blank in their other five matches.
Lithuania may find it difficult to score in Ireland, and not just because of Northern Ireland’s defence. The Lithuanian’s have averaged just the tenth fewest shots throughout the entire qualification campaign, but even more damning is the fact that in terms of shots on target, only Gibraltar, Liechtenstein and San Marino rank lower. Lithuania are not only taking a low amount of shots, but the ones they do take are often wayward and inaccurate.
Northern Ireland are fancied to win this match, but they are priced accordingly, which makes the 1X2 market unappealing. Equally, Baraclough’s side are hardly rampant scorers, which means any overs goal markets, or even backing them in the handicap market also makes little appeal.
Northern Ireland have kept two clean sheets in their six matches so far however, and it is not too difficult to see them doing so again.
With Baraclough fancied to gain just his second competitive win in charge of Northern Ireland, coupled with the fact that Lithuania are unlikely to score, it is something of a surprise to see NORTHERN IRELAND TO WIN TO NIL priced at as big as 6/5 with a couple of firms, making that the recommended bet in this fixture.
Northern Ireland v Lithuania best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Northern Ireland to win to nil at 6/5 (BetVictor, BoyleSports)
Score prediction: Northern Ireland 1-0 Lithuania (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (10/11/21)
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
Fast Results
Scores
