Italy travel to Northern Ireland with work still to do to seal top spot in Group C. Jake Pearson previews the match and picks out his best bet.
Jorginho’s missed penalty in the 90th minute against Switzerland on Friday leaves things all square at the top of Group C, with both sides on 15 points.
The Chelsea midfielder passed up the opportunity to all-but secure qualification for Roberto Mancini’s men as the Azzurri drew 1-1 with the Swiss, and now it all comes down to the final game.
Italy currently have a better goal difference, but only by two, and Switzerland’s final outing comes against Bulgaria, who they put three past when the two met back in March.
Mancini’s men know that matching the Swiss’ result will see them book their seats on the plane to Qatar, and a win in Northern Ireland does look extremely likely.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Despite the potential necessity for goals for Italy, the Azzurri aren’t the most ruthless team in world football, scoring just 13 goals during the qualification campaign, just the 20th most across all ten groups.
Italy have only managed to win a game by more than two goals on one occasion, beating Lithuania 5-0 back in September, with that also the only game the Azzurri have played that has seen more than two goals in total.
In short, the Italians are efficient.
Northern Ireland games haven’t exactly been laden with goals either, seeing three or more on just two occasions, with only their 4-1 victory over Lithuania going over the 3.5 mark.
That brings us nicely onto our recommended selection, ITALY TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS.
At a price of 10/11, backing a routine Italy victory with fewer than four goals makes plenty of appeal, particularly considering it has landed in all but one of Italy’s victories throughout the campaign.
Northern Ireland v Italy best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Italy to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 10/11 (bet365)
Score prediction: Northern Ireland 0-2 Italy (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1845 BST (13/11/21)
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