We are now closing in on the end of the 2021 NFL regular season, with just Week 18 remaining.
Whether it is picking against the spread or homing in on NFL prop bets, you now have plenty of evidence to sift through when making your pigskin picks.
Our midweek update is intended to inform you with some intel to take on the bookmakers each weekend. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
Injury Report
COVID-19/Omicron: Things are crazy once again, and the early news this week surrounds Philadelphia. The Eagles added 12 players to the COVID list on Monday - including star men Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox and Dallas Goedert. Philly closes out the regular season with a home game vs Dallas on Saturday night, and the line moved from Dallas -2 to Dallas -7 with that COVID outbreak in the City of Brotherly Love. Good job the Eagles have already wrapped up a post-season berth.
Michael Gallup (WR, Dallas Cowboys): Heartbreaking stuff for Gallup. The highly talented wideout is due to hit free agency in March, and he looked set for a huge payday elsewhere with Dallas having Amari Cooper on a massive contract and CeeDee Lamb emerging as a big-time weapon. Now though Gallup’s future is very much up in the air after his 2021 season ended with a torn ACL in Sunday’s home loss to Arizona. The Cowboys still have a ton of offensive weapons, but having Gallup as a third WR was an unfair advantage, one they now won’t have in the post-season.
David Bakhtiari (LT, Green Bay Packers): More a comeback than an injury this one, and the news Packer Nation has been eagerly awaiting all season. Superstar left tackle Bakhtiari will return to practice this week as Green Bay starts to prepare for life in the playoffs. He has not played at all in 2021 as he battles knee problems. His return should make the Pack even stronger foes once we get deeper into January.
Darren Waller (TE, Las Vegas Raiders): Another comeback here, and it’s a big one for the Raiders ahead of their crucial finale vs the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Waller, a key weapon for Derek Carr, has not played since Week 12 due to knee and back injuries. He is expected to participate in practice this week though in the hope of facing the Chargers.
Michael Carter (RB, New York Jets): Bad news for punters and fantasy owners who have taken advantage of Carter’s blossoming skills in 2021. The talented rookie is now in the league’s concussion protocol after leaving that heartbreaking loss to the Bucs early. He must be a huge doubt now for Sunday’s regular-season finale in Buffalo.
Kyle Pitts (TE, Atlanta Falcons): While Atlanta won’t be in post-season action, the performances of rookie TE Pitts have been a cause for optimism. The former Florida standout reportedly suffered a hamstring during Sunday’s loss in Buffalo, which likely leaves him hobbled at best for the season finale vs New Orleans on Sunday.
Ronald Jones (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers): While Antonio Brown (rightly) hogged most of the headlines as the Bucs came from behind to beat the Jets, their running back room suffered another blow. With Leonard Fournette already on IR, the loss of Jones with an ankle injury was something they could have done without. His status is not yet known for this Sunday’s showdown with Carolina. If he is ruled out, expect Ke’Shawn Vaughn and the recently signed Le’Veon Bell to pick up the slack.
NFL Playoff Picture - Current Seedings
The battle for post-season berths is becoming clearer every weekend, and we now have almost all of the playoff spots locked up heading into Week 18.
Green Bay clinched the #1 seed on Sunday with a 37-10 rout of Minnesota, while Philadephia claimed a wildcard berth by winning in Washington. In the AFC meanwhile we had Buffalo and New England clinching playoff spots, while Cincinnati wrapped up the North division title. Tennessee is the champion in the South after beating Miami.
There are a few key issues still to sort out this weekend, namely:
- There are two wildcard berths remaining in the AFC. The Chargers and the Raiders meet in a ‘win and you’re in’ game on Sunday Night Football, while the Colts know a victory over Jacksonville would wrap up the other spot.
- Either San Francisco (9-7) or New Orleans (8-8) will claim the remaining wildcard berth in the NFC.
- A win for Tennessee over Houston on Sunday would clinch the #1 seed in the AFC. A Tennessee loss and a Kansas City win over Denver would see it go to KC.
- Buffalo needs just a win over the New York Jets to clinch the AFC East title. A Bills loss and a New England win in Miami would see the Pats claim it.
- The Los Angeles Rams are in pole position to clinch the NFC West title - a win over San Francisco would do that. A Rams loss and a win for Arizona over Seattle would see the Cards take the division.
If the post-season started now, these are the teams who would be playing deeper into January:
American Football Conference (AFC)
- Tennessee Titans (11-5, clinched playoff spot and division)
- Kansas City Chiefs (11-5, clinched playoff spot and division)
- Cincinnati Bengals (10-6, clinched playoff spot and division)
- Buffalo Bills (10-6, clinched playoff spot)
- New England Patriots (10-6, clinched playoff spot)
- Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
- Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)
On the bubble: Las Vegas Raiders (9-7), Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1), Baltimore Ravens (8-8).
National Football Conference (NFC)
- Green Bay Packers (13-3, clinched playoff spot, division and homefield)
- Los Angeles Rams (12-4, clinched playoff spot)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4, clinched playoff spot and division)
- Dallas Cowboys (11-5, clinched playoff spot and division)
- Arizona Cardinals (11-5, clinched playoff spot)
- San Francisco 49ers (9-7)
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-7, clinched playoff spot)
On the bubble: New Orleans Saints (8-8).
Remember, the top four seeds in each conference go to the division winners. The next three go to the teams who are not top of their division but have the best records in the conference. They are the wild cards.
The top seed in each conference receives a first-round bye in the playoffs along with homefield advantage throughout the postseason.
Key NFL storylines
AB walks out: Antonio Brown’s spell in Tampa Bay is officially over after he left Sunday’s game vs the Jets during the third quarter. Took off his shirt, waved to the crowd, and left. Crazy scenes on a level that we have seldom seen in the NFL. While right now it would be a stretch to see any team taking a chance on Brown, as the days go by the likelihood is that some desperate GM will make a call. This is not a one-off though, Brown has now worked his way into and out of four franchises in recent years. While Bruce Arians is probably glad to have one less problem to worry about, losing another receiver right now is not ideal for the Bucs. Tampa had only just lost Chris Godwin for the year with a torn ACL and MCL.
Bengals on a tear: This feels like late 2019 all over again, when Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase were destroying defenses en route to post-season glory. Only that was in college play with LSU, this time they are doing the same in the NFL at Cincinnati. Cincy defeated Kansas City on Sunday to clinch the AFC North title, and will now provide headaches for anybody it faces later in January. Burrow has been astonishing recently - throwing for 971 yards and 8 scores in his last two (TWO) games. Chase meanwhile exploded for 266 yards and three scores in Sunday’s upset of the Chiefs. You better believe a few AFC defensive coordinators are having sleepless nights right now.
Vrabel a true Titan: The race to become NFL Coach Of The Year in 2021 appears to be very much of the three-horse variety now. That trio includes Tennessee HC Mike Vrabel, who would absolutely have our vote. Vrabel continues to squeeze every last drop out of a seriously depleted roster and on Sunday his team routed the Dolphins to clinch the AFC South title. A win this weekend would ensure the road to Super Bowl LVI in the AFC goes through Nashville - astonishing when you consider what the Titans have been forced to contend with.
Baker and the Browns: Baker Mayfield may have played his last game as a Cleveland Brown. That would have been difficult to imagine just three months ago when the former #1 overall pick was the absolute future face of the franchise. Since then though, Mayfield has struggled as the Browns missed out on a playoff spot. Injuries have really hampered Baker (he may miss Week 18 to have surgery on a torn labrum in his shoulder) and the signs are that the expected huge contract extension may not after all be coming his way. The Browns deciding to move on would just add further intrigue to an already fascinating QB market in the off-season.
Game Of The Week
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders (Monday January 10, 0120 GMT)
This is one of the reasons the NFL allowed the Raiders to move to the shadow of the world-famous Strip. A high-stakes matchup with ‘win and you’re in’ as the mantra.
Whoever emerges from this shootout with the W will claim a wildcard berth in the AFC playoffs. And it should be a beauty.
The Raiders have somehow held it together despite all the off-field controversies this season, largely thanks to Derek Carr and a fearsome pass rush.
Los Angeles meanwhile has flattered to deceive at times - one minute Justin Herbert looks like a football God, the next the Chargers are getting blown out.
Let’s hope COVID doesn’t take over the show and deliver weakened rosters for what should be a terrific game - one which is well worth setting the alarm for.
