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NFC North offseason update and odds: It’s all about Aaron Rodgers
How do you shoot a movie without the lead character? How do you stage a birthday party without the guest of honour?
That’s effectively the dilemma NFL punters are facing this summer as they assess the muddy waters of the NFC North. The lead actor, the guest of honour, in this case of course is none other than Aaron Charles Rodgers.
Aaron has done a lot of things this offseason, the only problem for the Green Bay Packers is none of them so far include football.
- He got engaged to Shailene Woodley
- He was guest presenter on ‘Jeopardy’
- He holidayed with Shailene (and Instagram) in Hawaii
- He rocked up at the Kentucky Derby
- He took part in golf’s pro-celebrity ‘The Match IV’
As yet though Rodgers, last season’s NFL MVP, has yet to report for the offseason programme, and with training camp looming nobody really knows whether #12 will start the season or not.
When the Packers drafted QB Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft it’s fair to say Rodgers was not best pleased. If you have a generational talent under center, wouldn’t you put weapons around him to win now, rather than build for a future without him?
In 2020 Rodgers subsequently came back with a chip on his shoulder to play better than ever, but it appears any patience he did have has now run out. Quite simply his relationship with certain key people in the front office appears irrevocably broken.
Any NFL betting lines which involve Green Bay right now - and that includes the NFC North - all have an asterisk against them. They’d be very different if we knew what Aaron’s plans were.
San Francisco did make a run at trading for Rodgers before the 2021 Draft but the Packers have so far resisted any overtures from other teams.
At some stage in the next two months somebody surely will have to budge. The world awaits...
NFC North in 2020: Green Bay first, the rest nowhere
If you can call the NFC North division a race in 2020, it was very much of the one-horse variety.
A revitalised Rodgers, seemingly motivated by the fact his replacement was already sitting on the bench at Lambeau Field, produced a season for the ages.
He was the best QB in football, Green Bay was one of the best teams and the pain of missing out on a Super Bowl still bites hard. Tom Brady will do that to you.
Behind the Packers, Minnesota under-achieved thanks in part to injuries. Leaving Chicago to claim second place in the division.
Detroit meanwhile did what Detroit so often does. Brings up the rear in a largely futile exercise. At least the Matt Patricia era is over, get ready for yet another makeover in 2021.
Final Standings
- 13-3 Green Bay Packers
- 8-8 Chicago Bears
- 7-9 Minnesota Vikings
- 5-11 Detroit Lions
It is zero surprise to see Green Bay a relatively heavy favourite to win the division again in 2021. There is that massive caveat though, that massive cloud on the horizon. Will Rodgers be there?
Green Bay Packers in 2021
This might be the hardest segment of any offseason update to write right now. We just don’t know what Rodgers and the Packers will do next.
It’s pretty clear Aaron thinks his time in GB is done, and a continued holdout does nothing for either party. The Packers don’t have their best player, while Rodgers starts handing back pay checks.
To make it even more complicated, there is a significant financial cost to Green Bay if it does decide to trade Rodgers. More than $21million in dead money against the salary cap in 2021 and another $16million in 2022.
That cost is not insurmountable for the Packers, but it would likely factor into the asking price for Rodgers if he is dealt. Based on that Matthew Stafford trade, even at the age of 37 we imagine discussions might start at 3 first-round draft picks.
While it waited for Aaron to blink, Green Bay had no choice to go about its business. And anybody who watched Kevin King get victimised by Tampa Bay receivers during that NFC title game defeat will not be surprised they started with cornerback.
The Packers spent their first draft pick on Georgia corner Eric Stokes, and while that may not have impressed Rodgers, they did at least follow up with some offensive selections.
Ohio State center Josh Myers in Round 2 should shore up the offensive line while Clemson WR Amari Rodgers (no relation) adds speed to the passing game in R3.
The defensive side of the ball again has plenty of talent and it was a top-10 unit in 2020, but it will undergo some change with Joe Barry replacing Mike Pettine as DC.
Summary: Green Bay still has the best roster in the North - and by some considerable margin if Rodgers is present and firing on all cylinders.
If he’s not, and the inexperienced Love is running the ship, we expect a significant dropoff. The supporting cast in the NFL is only as good as the QB.
If you think Aaron will be there on opening day, and fully bought in, you bet the Packers now. That shade of odds-on could look terrific value if it happens.
Minnesota Vikings in 2021
To stay 2020 was a strange season for the Vikings would be an understatement.
The end result of 7-9 was disappointing, yet in some ways they overachieved in areas given the challenges thrown at them.
It feels like Minnesota has always threatened to challenge Green Bay atop the NFC North in recent years, and if it is ever going to happen then 2021 should be the year.
Offense should not be an issue for the Vikes. Dalvin Cook might be the most talented RB in the league when healthy (we love him), while Kirk Cousins is eminently serviceable under center.
Cousins has some pretty nice weapons to work with in 2020 rookie sensation Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, while tight end Irv Smith Jr might be a nice fantasy sleeper.
Up front Minnesota kicked off the Draft by picking up its left tackle of the future in Christian Darrisaw from Virginia Tech, and followed up by snagging Ohio State guard Wyatt Davis in R3.
Unusually for the Vikings, it was the defense that struggled in 2020 - HC Mike Zimmer rarely coaches a bad one but this might have been it (ranked 27th overall).
There are reasons to believe that things will be back to normal in 2021 - notably the return of Danielle Hunter after he missed the whole of 2020 with a neck injury.
Hunter’s return should revitalise a pass rush which was sorely lacking in 2020 (just 28th in the league in sacks) while Pitt defensive end Patrick Jones is another draft pick with plenty of upside.
The secondary is the biggest question mark right now, and the free-agent signing of the once-great Patrick Peterson could be boom or bust. The Vikes need a CB to pair Peterson with and did not address the position until Round 4 of the Draft (Camryn Bynum from Cal).
Summary: Every day that Aaron Rodgers is not in the building in Green Bay, the chances of a Minnesota division title grow.
The time is absolutely now for the Vikings - if the line is improved then it is stacked with talent on offense, and the return of Hunter and signing of Peterson should improve the D.
Even if Rodgers returns now, we would not be stunned to see Minnesota challenge for the North. If he doesn’t, the current 12/5 odds will disappear pretty swiftly.
Chicago Bears in 2021
The Bears’ decision to trade up for Ohio State QB Justin Fields might just keep HC Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace in jobs for another couple of years at least.
A team without hope at the game’s most important position is dead. At least now Chicago has signs of life.
Right now the Bears are saying Andy Dalton will start in Week 1, but he was average at best in Dallas last season and we don’t believe it will be long before Fields is on the field. Again see above re the job status of Nagy and Pace.
It’s astonishing to consider how weak the Bears have been at the QB position in their history - they are the only NFL team to have never produced a passer with 4000 yards in a season. There were 12 of them in the league in 2020 alone…
There are weapons to help Fields transition to the NFL too - notably star wide receiver Allen Robinson, one of the league’s best.
The Bears also put another important future piece in place via the draft by trading up to pick LT of the future Teven Jenkins in Round 2. That also allowed the team to release Charles Leno. Jenkins is a really physical player who should fit Chicago perfectly.
Chicago needs a strong ground game to take some of the weight off Dalton (and then Fields), and David Montgomery looks primed to lead the charge after breaking through 1000 yards in 2020.
The Bears defense in recent years has pretty much just picked up the slack from an underachieving offense (see the failed Mitch Trubisky experiment).
Chicago still has blue-chip pieces, notably Khalil Mack, while Roquan Smith should be very good again in 2021 and Akiem Hicks can flash real brilliance.
Secondary is a concern for the Bears right now, and the jury is out whether the free-agent signing of Desmond Trufant will improve the situation.
Summary: The Bears are a fascinating storyline for 2021. Again there is a big question mark over who will be under center - we expect Fields to get his shot sooner rather than later.
Chicago has had pieces in place for a number of years now, but without the signal caller to make everything hum. Is Fields the guy? We should find out soon enough.
Detroit Lions in 2021
With the Matt Patricia era over in Detroit, yet another makeover is here - this time under the stewardship of new head coach Dan Campbell.
When introduced to local media, Campbell provided some great quotes, as well as referencing ‘The Big Lebowski’. Strong start. Our favourite sound bite was this beauty:
“We're going to kick you in the teeth, right? And when you punch us back, we're going to smile at you. And when you knock us down, we're going to get up and on the way up, we're going to bite a kneecap off?”
Stirring words from Campbell, and he may well improve the mindset of this team and the culture in the building. But he’s working with a pretty short hand in 2021.
The Lions have Jared Goff replacing Matt Stafford at QB after that blockbuster trade with the Rams. But given the lack of receiving options (can you name a Lions WR right now?) it’s difficult to imagine Goff suddenly having a renaissance.
Detroit must establish a running game to stand any chance in games, and new OC Anthony Lynn has always made it a priority in the past.
The Lions do have weapons in the backfield - former Packer Jamaal Williams adds a quality option while D’Andre Swift is an intriguing piece. Picking up generational LT prospect Penei Sewell in the 2021 Draft puts in place a key anchor up front for the future.
It will take at least a year or two to work out if the Lions maximise the value of that Stafford trade (which brought them three first-round picks) but we should get signs at least in 2021.
The Lions have a rookie defensive coordinator in Aaron Glenn and the team put the focus on that side of the ball after picking up Sewell.
Their new additions will need to pay off fast if Detroit is to improve in 2021 - the team ranked dead last in total defense in 2020.
Michael Jordan once famously said: “the ceiling is the roof” - for Campbell and his group, it might be the floor.
Summary: While 20/1 might look huge just to win a division, it’s not nearly big enough for us to suggest it qualifies as value.
While we like the hire of Campbell as head coach, he does not have many chips to play with. We’re not sure how the coupling of OC Lynn and QB Goff plays out, while the lack of receiving options is pretty terrifying. Don’t expect the Lions to put up 30 very often.
For long-suffering Lions fans, this is nothing new - the road to the promised land still appears to be very far in the distance. If they do get closer in 2021, it will be baby steps only.
Odds correct at 0940 BST (14/07/21)
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