There is a paradox at the heart of those leaked ultimatums. Any boardroom deciding a manager has two games to save their job has already told us the job is over, because to focus on results is to deny the process. If you’re looking at the short-term, the long-term plan has already been burned.
To confirm the paradox, try to think of a single example in football history of a manager being issued with one of those ultimatums and going on to succeed with that club. There is one person who sort of fits that description, of course, but he is an anomaly, a statistical insignificance. It is Manchester United’s eternal curse to not see it that way, and indeed to give more time to managers than anyone else purely because Old Trafford was the place where one once came back from the brink.
The story of Sir Alex Ferguson at United is always told with one important piece of information missing, probably because the tale is a little more romantic without it: United finished second in his first full season in charge, their highest position in eight years.
That bought him time. What exactly has bought Ten Hag the same luxury?
An EFL Cup and FA Cup are simply not appropriate yard sticks to mark progress in the modern game and everyone knows it. Frankly arguments to the contrary are disingenuous. A more appropriate measure of the club’s movement under Ten Hag is their lowest-ever Premier League finish in 2023/24, followed by their worst-ever start to a Premier League season in 2024/25, incidentally breaking a record Ten Hag set.
The idea that a maddening 3-3 draw with Porto followed by a 0-0 draw with a desperately fatigued Aston Villa should offer a reprieve is bizarre, especially as it extends United's winless run to five in all competitions. Not that the results really ought to be relevant. Again, as soon as a manager is on the brink the trigger may as well be pulled.
Ten Hag has a net spend of around £380m since his arrival in 2022/23, yet the majority of these players are failing to make the first XI and United still look tactically devoid of ideas. Even at Villa, where they were at least defensively secure, a low block and counter-attacking approach was entirely at odds with the long-term tactical vision.
The club have quite simply moved backwards over the 29 months since Ten Hag was appointed. That the board came close to finding his successor in the summer – reportedly getting as far as contract discussions with now-England boss Thomas Tuchel - tells us they agree with that statement.
And so as rumours of his departure grow it’s important to note that how the board see Ten Hag hasn’t actually changed. But unluckily for the manager, the market has.
Next permanent Manchester United manager odds (via Sky Bet)
- Ruud Van Nistelrooy - 5/2
- Gareth Southgate - 3/1
- Michael Carrick - 6/1
- Graham Potter - 9/1
- Thomas Frank - 9/1
- Kieran McKenna - 10/1
- Edin Terzic - 12/1
- Ruben Amorim - 14/1
- Zinedine Zidane - 20/1
- Massimiliano Allegri - 22/1
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (17/10/24)
Southgate and United just makes sense
Gareth Southgate was perhaps Man Utd’s favoured choice all along but there was no way of getting him while England were playing in Euro 2024. This time the stars are aligned, and the more you think about it the more Southgate to United makes a strange kind of sense.
The headline concerns of United supporters are certainly valid. Southgate is no great tactician and after successive managers have failed to impose a tactical identity on the club Southgate’s chances of doing so are slim - and that is assuming he even has the ability to coach the progressive attacking football the job demands.
He couldn’t do that at England, and worse, international football is completely different to the club game. Southgate’s last go at the latter was with Middlesbrough in the late 2000s. It ended in relegation.
But a Southgate appointment wouldn’t really be about results. He would essentially be a long-term interim, a statesmanlike managerialist there to detoxify the culture, steady the ship, and prepare the ground for a more expansive person to come next. Sound familiar?
It will to Dan Ashworth, United’s new sporting director and FA director of elite development during the first two years of Southgate’s time as England manager. It was between 2016 and 2018, from Iceland and the pint of wine to inflatable unicorns and the semi-finals in Russia, that Southgate did his best work. Ashworth might see a similar value in Southgate at Old Trafford.
The new team put together by INEOS will need four or five more transfer windows before the squad is sorted out. Besides that there is an entire working culture reportedly in need of serious re-evaluation behind the scenes. Results simply will not get better for several years, and in the meantime United will need a calming figure to steer them through difficult times with pragmatic choices and good vibes.
Perhaps it is logical, then, to hire a figurehead Ashworth knows will be on his side, will represent the club intelligently and thoughtfully, and will happily absorb the flack while working diligently in the background to turn the tanker around.
No, it isn’t fool proof. There are plenty of reasons why it could turn out to be a catastrophe. But take a step back and Southgate becomes an interesting choice for a club that needs a manager with the humility to work with them on a long-term project. And really, what is there to lose? It can’t get any worse than it already is.
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