Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Under 3.5 goals at 13/10 (Betfair)
1pt Over 2.5 home cards at 11/5 (Unibet)
1pt Aaron Wildig to be shown a card at 5/1 (General)
In a fourth round packed with underwhelming ties, Sunday afternoon at least provides an FA Cup encounter with some potential.
Having made history, and given footballing conspiracy theorists plenty of ammunition, by being drawn at home on 12 successive occasions in domestic cups, Manchester United face a second away trip in a row.
What awaits them in south Wales will be very different to their third-round tie at Wigan, however.
In their 34 years since reforming, Newport have never played above the bottom division. They share Rodney Parade with two rugby clubs at a 150-year-old stadium known for its terrible pitch, tiny changing rooms and often extreme weather conditions.
This really should be an old school cup tie.
What are the best bets?
Newport are 33/1 with some firms, so this would go down as one of the shocks. But they have come close in the recent past.
At this stage in 2018 only an 82-minute equaliser from Harry Kane earned Tottenham a replay. The following season the Exiles went a round further and Manchester City needed three goals in the final 15 minutes to eventually win 4-1.
Given the pressure that Erik ten Hag is under and the expectation he will name a full strength team, an upset feels more unlikely this time around. But United's inconsistency means I do like the idea of getting Graham Coughlan's men on side to some degree.
The Exiles have lost only twice at home in the league this term and after a slow start are building momentum to give themselves hope of making the play-offs.
They've lost just two of their past 14 matches in all competitions and since Coughlan got a proper grip on a squad that experienced a summer overhaul they've become defensively reliable.
In their first 14 league games of the season they conceded 31 goals, in the next 14 it's been just 14. I realise I'm saying 14 a lot...
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Backing UNDER 3.5 GOALS at a fair bit of odds-against therefore feels like a smart play. With the lowest pass completion percentage and fourth-lowest average possession in Sky Bet League Two, Newport will be very happy sitting deep.
Expect the obdurate fourth-tier side to dig in and make things as uncomfortable as possible for their Premier League visitors.
Along those same lines, Newport picked up six cards in their win over Welsh rivals Wrexham last time out, taking them to 12 in their last four home games.
The 11/5 about OVER 2.5 HOME CARDS appeals, especially given the intensity the hosts will likely bring to the contest.
AARON WILDIG looks most likely to go in the notebook from a Newport perspective and yet the midfielder is 5/1 to be carded.
He's been booked in two of Newport's past five league games to take him to five for the season, the most any player in the squad has received.
And that's despite only starting 17 of their 28 matches, making one further appearance from the bench.
- Bruno Fernandes to score
- 30+ home booking points
- Under 3.5 goals
- Aaron Wildig to be carded
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As inconsistent as Manchester United have been this season, and as marmite a character as he is, BRUNO FERNANDES continues to be fairly reliable.
That's especially the case in cup competition, where United's captain and penalty taker has scored as many goals (3) in seven starts as he has in 20 league appearances.
Team news
Newport's on-loan Liverpool defender Adam Lewis is fit again and Matt Baker could also return having made the bench against Wrexham. Kyle Jameson, Offrande Zanzala and Declan Drysdale are all doubtful.
Manchester United could have Casemiro, Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire back after injury, with Lisandro Martinez also pushing to start having made a substitute appearance against Tottenham.
Anthony Martial has had surgery and faces 10 weeks out, joining Victor Lindelof, Tyrell Malacia and Mason Mount on the sidelines. Andre Onana and Sofyan Amrabat are away at AFCON.
Predicted line-ups
Newport: Townsend; Lewis, Delaney, Clarke, Bennett, McLoughlin; Morris, Charsley, Wildig; Evans, Houlden.
Man Utd: Bayindir; Wan-Bissaka, Varane, Evans, Dalot; Mainoo, McTominay; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Hojlund
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (26/01/24)
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