The third tier might not be glamorous to many but to Newport and Forest Green, it will look like heaven. Michael Beardmore previews their League Two play-off semi-final with best bets.
Football betting tips: Newport v Forest Green
1pt Newport to keep a clean sheet at 9/5 (General)
1pt Under 1.5 goals at 2/1 (General)
The League Two play-offs get under way on Tuesday evening as one club eyes third-tier football for the first time in 34 years – and the other for the first time ever.
Newport were last in Division Three, as it was then, in 1987, while Forest Green have spent all but the past three years of their 132-year existence in non-league football.
Only goal difference separated fifth-placed Newport from Forest Green, in sixth, in the table but the Exiles have given up second-leg home advantage due to pitch renovation work at Rodney Parade.
League Two play-off semi-final first legs have not tended to produce many goals in recent years – 1-0, 0-2, 1-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 the past six scorelines – and with Newport involved, I expect little different.
County boast one of the meanest defences in League Two, conceding just 42 goals in 46 regular-season games and they have been in stinginess ‘beast mode’ during the run-in.
Michael Flynn’s side have let in just three goals in their final nine games, keeping six clean sheets in the process.
Add in Forest Green being robbed of 16-goal top scorer Jamille Matt through injury and failing to score in seven of their past 12 games and NEWPORT TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET looks a solid play.
Only Salford have kept more home shut-outs than the Exiles this season and several firms offer 9/5 on Newport adding to their 10 clean sheets in 23 in South Wales.
Read Sporting Life's Sky Bet EFL play-offs outright previews
The hosts have spread the goals around this season with a whopping 23 different marksmen – including even keeper Tom King getting in on the act – but that makes picking a scorer tough.
Newport penalty taker Matty Dolan (14/1 first, 11/2 anytime) and Rovers’ second leading scorer Aaron Collins (11/2 first, 2/1 anytime) are the safe options but it’s a needle in a haystack job.
I don’t think there will be many goals in this at all and while Newport to nick it 1-0 is tempting at 6/1, the safer call is UNDER 1.5 GOALS at 2/1 generally, giving us a goalless draw and 1-0 either way.
The bet would have landed in six of Newport’s past 11 games and five of Forest Green’s past 12 and with both teams surely keen to keep things tight in a nervy first leg, I fancy it to come in again.
If you want the added protection at larger stakes, under 2.5 goals is available at 4/6 with William Hill and Boyle Sports but I’m willing to gamble with under 1.5 at three times the price.
Newport v Forest Green best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Newport to keep a clean sheet at 9/5 (General)
- 1pt Under 1.5 goals at 2/1 (General)
Score prediction: Newport 1-0 Forest Green (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1730 BST (14/05/21)
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