Football betting tips: Monday Night
1pt Tomas Soucek to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Also advised 1pt Guido Rodriguez to be carded at 21/10 (Unibet) - note, player does not start
BuildABet @ 16/1
- Guido Rodriguez to be carded
- Tomas Soucek to be carded
- Alexander Isak to score anytime
Newcastle and West Ham went into the international break very differently. The Magpies flying after three straight wins in all competitions against sides above them in the table. The Hammers winning just one of four.
Eddie Howe has come through a rocky period, Julen Lopetegui is still in the middle of one, with the Spaniard the second favourite in the Premier League 'sack race' market after a very underwhelming start to his tenure.
The Hammers haven't won away since their first attempt of the season, while Newcastle have beaten Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea and held Manchester City at St. James' Park already.
So this one should be pretty straightforward, right?
What are the best bets?
It should be yes. Newcastle have re-found their swagger since the return of Joe Willock, and I fully expect them to get the job done here. They are short enough at 1/2 to do that though.
The bet for this game comes from my longstanding, and proven, Newcastle theory to back opposition midfielders to be carded.
At least one has been booked in each of Newcastle's last 10 Premier League games, with Nottingham Forest's Ryan Yates the most recent.
In total, 13 of 21 opposing midfielders have had their name taken this season, and on Monday they face an aggressive team who have made the joint-second most fouls.
At 3/1 TOMAS SOUCEK TO BE CARDED looks a solid proposition.
The only question mark is whether or not the Czech international will start having been in and out of the side this season. He was in the XI for West Ham's last game, starting in a number eight role as opposed to part of a defensive double-pivot, which helps this bet should he get the nod again.
Soucek has been carded three times already this season, averaging 0.41 cards per 90 this term, and is committing 1.65 fouls per 90 and is facing an opposing midfield that is superb at drawing fouls and cards.
Lucas Paqueta (13/8) and Edson Alvarez (6/4) are both highly likely to get their names taken should they start, especially the former who is one card away from a suspension. Alvarez missed the last game due to suspension, so it's unclear whether he'll return.
One player who will most likely start is GUIDO RODRIGUEZ, and at above 2/1, he looks a good price TO BE CARDED too.
The Argentine has started all 11 league games this season and has three cards already, with two of those coming in his five away outings.
He's cynical by nature, usually getting carded for his first foul, which always bodes well.
As a final boost to our chances, the referee appointment of Craig Pawson - who is averaging 4.5 cards per game this season - is a significant help.
Team news
Dan Burn is suspended for Newcastle, so with Sevn Botman, Jamaal Lascelles and Emil Krafth all injured, Eddie Howe will likely field Lloyd Kelly at centre-back alongside Fabian Schar.
Howe does have a decision to make on Harvey Barnes, and whether or not to start him after a run of good substitute performances. If he is to start, it would likely mean Joelinton dropping deeper and Sean Longstaff making way.
Edson Alvarez is available again after being suspending for West Ham's last match against Everton, but Mohammed Kudus remains suspended. Lopetegui has a decision on whether to bring Alvarez back into the line-up as part of a defensive double-pivot alongside Guido Rodriguez, a move that would see Tomas Soucek drop to the bench.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle: Pope; Livramento, Schär, Kelly, Hall; Longstaff, Guimarães, Willock; Joelinton, Isak, Gordon
West Ham: Fabiański; Wan-Bissaka, Todibo, Kilman, Emerson; Rodriguez, Souček, Paquetá, Bowen, Summerville; Antonio.
Match facts
- Newcastle have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League games against West Ham (W5 D4) and are unbeaten in all five against the Hammers under Eddie Howe (W2 D3).
- West Ham haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 10 Premier League games against Newcastle, though they’ve only failed to score themselves in one of the last 13, with both teams finding the net in each of the last seven meetings between them.
- Newcastle have won their last two Premier League games, and are looking to win three in a row for the first time since September 2023 – this is the sixth occasion since that they have won twice in a row in the league.
- West Ham have kept just two clean sheets in their last 28 Premier League away games, conceding 66 goals (2.4 per game). Indeed, in 2024, they have conceded more away goals in the top-flight (35) than any side.
- Along with Liverpool, Newcastle are one of two clubs yet to drop a single point from a winning position in the Premier League this season. The Magpies have won each of the last 10 matches in which they have led at any point in the Premier League, their longest such run since winning 11 in a row from February to August 2006.
- West Ham have failed to score in their last two league games, as many as their previous 14 beforehand. Only once since the start of last season have they gone three league matches without a goal, doing so in February.
- Newcastle have used fewer players (19) than any other side in the Premier League this season, while only Crystal Palace (4) have seen fewer players score for them (excl. own goals) in the division this term than the Magpies (5).
- Newcastle’s Alexander Isak has scored in all three of his Premier League games against West Ham, netting a brace in both meetings with the Hammers last term. No Newcastle player has scored multiple goals in three consecutive Premier League meetings with an opponent before, while no player has ever done so against West Ham either.
- Only Jørgen Strand Larsen (16) has made more hold-ups while retaining possession in the Premier League this season than West Ham’s Michail Antonio (15). Antonio is retaining possession with 71% of his hold-ups in the competition this term (15/21), the highest ratio of any player to attempt 10+.
- Only against Aston Villa (9) has Newcastle’s Harvey Barnes been directly involved in more Premier League goals than he has against West Ham (8 – 6 goals, 2 assists). He’s either scored or assisted in each of his last four against the Hammers (4 goals, 1 assist), finding the net in each of the last three.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (22/11/24)
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