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Newcastle vs Liverpool betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Newcastle over 4.5 corners at 10/11 (General)
BuildABet @ 10/1
- Newcastle 5+ corners
- Valentino Livramento 3+ tackles
- Andy Robertson 3+ tackles
It's a surprise to see Newcastle as high as 11th in the Premier League table because it doesn't *feel* like they win a huge amount of games.
Just two of the last nine for Eddie Howe's men have seen maximum returns but, to be fair, one of those was against Arsenal at home. Despite that, their previous two performances have been particularly poor.
They were completely outplayed the last time they featured in front of their own supporters, with an inconsistent West Ham side (frankly, nobody can work out what the hell they are this season) not only winning 2-0 but doing so in a game that ended like a training exercise.
They followed up that showing of opposition keep-ball by registering just two shots in a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace at the weekend. Quite remarkable really that an equaliser in the dying seconds denied them the win.
"We have some quality on the pitch as well" 💪
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 1, 2024
Liverpool boss Arne Slot reacts to his sides crucial win over Man City ✅ pic.twitter.com/Vl3bADFImA
Enter Liverpool, the established best side in the Premier League by far so far. Nine points clear at the top after taking apart defending champions Manchester City last time out, confidence will be sky-high.
What are the best bets?
The contrasting form makes the price on an away win certainly eye-catching.
Is it going too well though? My logic when teams are on strong, long runs - Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 16 with 15 of those wins - is that eventually it does have to come to an end.
But creativity has evaded Newcastle. Howe's side haven't been able to get close to the attacking output they've seen in recent seasons.
I touch more on it in the Notebook column which you can read here but the underlying numbers highlight the drop off - it's not simply a case of strikers being unavailable through injury.
Newcastle's average of 2.03 expected goals (xG) per game was the fourth-best in the 23/24 Premier League. This season it's 1.40 - that puts them 12th in this metric.
The likelihood of the away side leading does open up value elsewhere though and I'd have confidence in the 10/11 on NEWCASTLE OVER 4.5 CORNERS. That's a price available with multiple bookmakers.
Liverpool have a good element of controlling the game when they need to but their opponents will inevitably see chances to try and score. This is a team that loves to use their width as much as they can.
That has, unsurprisingly, led to corners, with an average of 6.15 per game so far. Game state is always important in this market yet style plays a significant part too.
Southampton took three in Liverpool's last away game with Brighton seeing six in the Carabao Cup. Leipzig had five in the Champions League - opponents are seeing opportunities.
Newcastle have continued to take corners in recent weeks despite their poor run. They come into this on the back of nine against Palace and eight against West Ham in their last home game.
The five line is low enough for me to want involvement.
Team news
The big news for Newcastle will surround forward Alexander Isak after he was forced off through injury in their draw at Palace.
It led to transfer talk about the January window, although Howe dismissed the possibility by telling his press conference: "Fully fit Premier League strikers who can score goals will cost us an extortionate amount of money that we don’t have."
Defensive trio Sven Botman, Emil Krafth and Jamaal Lascelles all remain absent.
For Liverpool, Ibrahima Konaté is still out until the new year while Conor Bradley is also not fit enough to start - Trent Alexander-Arnold will continue at right-back.
Forwards Federico Chiesa and Diogo Jota are unavailable and goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher will continue in place of the injured Alisson Becker.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle XI: Pope; Livramento, Schär, Burn, Hall; Tonali, Guimarães, Joelinton; Gordon, Wilson, Barnes.
Liverpool XI: Kelleher; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Salah, Nunez, Gakpo.
Match facts
- Newcastle have lost their last six Premier League games against Liverpool, and are winless in 15 against the Reds since a 2-0 win in December 2015 (D4 L11).
- Liverpool have won five of their last six away league games against Newcastle (D1), with their current streak of three their longest ever winning away run against the Magpies.
- Liverpool have won 11 Premier League games in which they’ve trailed at some point against Newcastle, the most comeback wins one side has against another in the competition’s history.
- The 15 evening kick-offs (7pm or later) between Newcastle and Liverpool in the Premier League have produced 51 goals (3.4 per game), including two famous 4-3 wins for Liverpool (1996 and 1997). Indeed, the Magpies have won just one of these 15 meetings (D3 L11).
- Newcastle won just one of their six midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games last season (D1 L4), losing both such games played on Wednesday.
- Liverpool have won 16 of their last 18 midweek (Tues, Weds, Thurs) Premier League games (D1 L1), though their last such match was a 2-0 defeat away to Everton in April.
- Newcastle have lost two of their last three home Premier League games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 20 combined (W13 D5). They’ve also scored just one goal across their last three at St James’ Park, having scored in 22 consecutive home games beforehand (53 goals).
- Newcastle United have won just one of their last 26 Premier League matches against teams starting the day top of the table (D7 L18), beating Chelsea 2-1 in December 2014. Manager Eddie Howe, meanwhile, has never won against a table-topping side in 12 attempts (D2 L10), the most such games a manager has overseen without winning in Premier League history.
- Alexander Isak has 21 goals in 30 home Premier League appearances for Newcastle, although he has only scored twice from 18 attempts at St James’ Park this season (11%), a 19% drop from last season when he converted 30% of his shots (14/47).
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been involved in 14 Premier League goals against Newcastle (8 goals, 6 assists), with these coming in his last 13 appearances against them.
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (02/12/24)
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