Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Ramy Bensebaini to be carded at 29/10 (General)
1pt Marius Wolf to be carded at 4/1 (General)
There's a must-win feel to this contest already for Dortmund, with defeat potentially leaving them five points adrift of second with three games remaining.
Newcastle's surprise 4-1 hammering of PSG puts them top of the group, and confidence in their ability to win contests at home sees them as short as 4/7 in places to beat a Dortmund side unbeaten in the Bundesliga so far.
But their issues in this tough European group is where focus should be on their chances. Four of their five league games have been against those in the bottom five - against stronger sides, they've struggled.
What are the best bets?
This should still be a competitive contest though with both teams eager to attack.
Add in Artur Dias Soares' appointment as referee and there is a potential for cards in both teams. He's averaged 5.6 cards per game this season - three of them have seen six or more.
The best bets in the cards market come on the Dortmund side of things. The first of which is backing RAMY BENSEBAINI TO BE CARDED with 29/10 available with multiple bookmakers.
He should be lining up at left-back, and this has been a problematic position for Newcastle's opponents in the last few weeks - the opposition left-back has been carded in each of their last four.
That's hardly a surprise when 38% of Newcastle's attacks this season have been down their right side. There's been a preference to play out wide rather than through the middle.
Bensebaini's own stats offer encouragement too, with two cards in the league this season and at least a foul in every start. There were also six tackles and a foul in the draw with AC Milan.
On the other side, MARIUS WOLF should be drafted in to start at right-back, making his 4/1 FOR A CARD worth getting involved with.
He's committed a foul in each of his last two league starts, but Newcastle could target this side knowing the availability issues that Dortmund are facing.
BuildABet @ 10/1
- Over 2.5 goals
- Ramy Bensebaini 2+ fouls
- Marius Wolf 2+ fouls
Click here to back with Sky Bet
Bensebaini's and Wolf's involvement has already been discussed in this contest, and Newcastle's wide play should force them into a few fouls.
Dortmund will look to attack and I'd back them to find the net, but it's a huge ask for anyone to keep out this Newcastle team at the moment.
Given that we're expecting them to win, it should be a game in which the over 2.5 goals line is hit.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Dortmund (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Team news
Newcastle remain without winger Harvey Barnes and midfielder Joe Willock, while Sven Botman remains a doubt as he continues his recovery.
Callum Wilson's goal at the weekend could see him force his way in ahead of Alexander Isak.
For the visitors, Julian Ryerson is missing through illness, meaning Wolf is likely to start in his place. Thomas Meunier and Youssoufa Moukoko are also sidelined.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle: Pope; Trippier, Lascelles, Schär, Burn; Longstaff, Guimarães, Joelinton; Almirón, Isak, Gordon
Dortmund: Kobel; Wolf, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; F. Nmecha, Emre Can; Malen, Reus, Brandt; Füllkrug
Match facts
- This is the first competitive meeting between Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund – the Magpies have never lost against German opponents in all European competition (W4 D1), most recently drawing 0-0 with Eintracht Frankfurt in the 2006-07 UEFA Cup.
- Newcastle earned their biggest ever UEFA Champions League victory against PSG last time out (4-1). The Magpies have won 60% of their home games in the competition (6/10), compared to just 20% away from home (2/10).
- Borussia Dortmund have failed to score in each of their last three UEFA Champions League games, as many times as in their previous 28 matches. They’ve never gone four without a goal in the competition before.
- Borussia Dortmund have had 14 more shots than Newcastle (32-18) in the UEFA Champions League this season; however, the German side are yet to score while the Magpies have the second-highest shot conversion rate through the first two matchdays (22.2%).
- Newcastle United - who won 4-1 v PSG on MD2 - have had the fewest touches in the opposition box in the UEFA Champions League in the first two matchdays (23), as well as having the lowest xG (1.2) among all sides in this period.
- Only Real Sociedad (6) have had more shots following a high turnover than Borussia Dortmund (5) in the opening two matchdays of the UEFA Champions League this season. However, Newcastle are one of seven sides yet to face a shot from a high turnover in this period.
- No player created more chances than Julian Brandt through the first two matchdays in the UEFA Champions League this season (8), with five of those coming in Borussia Dortmund’s draw against Milan last time out in the competition.
Odds correct at 1620 BST (24/10/23)
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