Newcastle v Wolves
Since Christmas, no team in the Premier League has won fewer points than Newcastle United, and it’s not hard to see why the murmurings of discontent are getting louder in the North East.
Newcastle equalised at Old Trafford in their most recent league outing, but the hosts would eventually brush them aside to win 3-1 without leaving third gear – expected goals: MUN 1.69 – 0.45 NEW.
That result condemned the Magpies to their 14th defeat of the season and, worryingly, only West Brom (15) and Sheffield United (20) have lost more games than Newcastle this term.
Steve Bruce has undoubtedly taken the club backwards, and his failure to compete tactically in England’s top flight have been ruthlessly exposed.
The Magpies have created an abysmal average of 1.00 expected goals for (xGF) per game across their last 10 fixtures, fashioning just seven big chances (>35%) across that period.
To add to the growing concern surrounding Bruce’s ability to maintain the club’s Premier League status, Newcastle have been rocked by an injury to the talismanic Callum Wilson.
Wilson accounts for 40% of the club’s goal haul this campaign, having scored 10 goals from 11.38 xG, which begs the question – who’s going to fire Newcastle to safety in his absence?
It’s not exactly been a vintage season for Wolves, either, but they’ve shown recent signs of revival, beating Southampton and Leeds recently (xG: WOL 0.91 – 2.73 LEE).
Wolves were incredibly fortunate against Leeds, creating significantly less opportunities, while also benefiting from an own goal, but that result extended their unbeaten run.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s side are now unbeaten across their last four league games, and they’re seemingly slowly returning to the levels of seasons past.
Notably, they’ve conceded just twice through that period, and they should be able to limit Newcastle’s chances on goal considering their attacking struggles.
While the 8/13 available about UNDER 2.5 GOALS is far from spectacular, it looks a very appealing bet here, with genuine doubts over both sides' form in front of goal.
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Newcastle v Wolves best bets
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 8/13 (General)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (25/02/21)
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