The first of two games in the Premier League on Saturday sees West Ham travel to Newcastle. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Newcastle v West Ham
1pt Jarrod Bowen to score anytime at 3/1 (Unibet)
1pt Pablo Fornals to score anytime at 7/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pts Jarrod Bowen to score 2+ goals at 24/1 (Unibet)
0.5pts Pablo Fornals to score 2+ goals at 90/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Newcastle's victory over Burnley gave them breathing space in the battle to avoid relegation. They are now six points clear of Fulham and hold a game in-hand. Steve Bruce's side should stay up, just, but they may have to accept defeat against a West Ham side in a surprise position in the top-four.
David Moyes' men may be the outsiders but they have good fixtures to finish the season. If they want to secure Champions League football next season, they have to be viewing these games as must-win.
The Hammers are even money favourites for success here which looks good value given the contrasting seasons. Newcastle won when these two sides met at the beginning of the campaign, we can expect a different outcome this time around.
Michail Antonio remains an injury doubt for this game. The West Ham striker's season has been stop-start but they've managed to find ways to win without him, which is quite impressive considering that Sebastian Haller left for Ajax in January after a forgettable spell at the club and they opted not to replace him.
Newcastle have injury problems of their own with Isaac Hayden, Jamaal Lascelles and Fabian Schar all missing at the back in recent weeks. This is a team who have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten, and with West Ham scoring nine goals across their last three games, there is big value on offer in the goalscorer market.
The player who is occupying the centre forward role now is JARROD BOWEN. He comes into this game on a three-game scoring run and there is a best price of 3/1 that he scores again here. Given his form and advanced position, anything above 2/1 should be considered.
His goalscoring form has been excellent but it's hardly a surprise. He has eight this season but netted 38 in his final season-and-a-half in the Sky Bet Championship. Bowen's last two starts up front have brought four shots, while there were two when he played as a forward in the recent defeat to Manchester United.
The thing that stood out during his time at Hull, among many things and the many goals he scored, was that when he played more centrally he would often strike. He was primarily a winger, as has been the case at West Ham, but when he was asked to play as a striker he delivered.
That has been the case so far this season and there is the potential for him to enjoy a good scoring run between now and the end of the campaign if Antonio remains sidelined. The prices on offer reflect him playing as a winger rather than the central position we can now expect and it won't be long before they disappear.
With his anytime goalscorer odds quite big, there is generous odds on offer for BOWEN TO SCORE 2+ GOALS here too. During his fine half-season at Hull, he played as a striker or centre forward on seven occasions, with two of those bringing a brace.
Bowen moving forward has opened up a regular position for PABLO FORNALS in recent weeks and he scored with odds of 10/1 on offer in the win over Wolves. Big prices still remain on the player and the 7/1 available for a goal anytime is worth backing against this defence.
We could have perhaps seen more in terms of shots in recent weeks but it's still a surprise to see him priced as big as he is for a goal in this game. He's underperformed his season expected goals figure (three goals from 4.13 xG - via Infogol) and we can expect to see more goals if he retains a regular starting spot.
Fornals has been averaging 1.2 shots per game in the Premier League this season and statistics like these highlight why the price is too big. Said Benrahma is a much shorter 11/4 in places, yet he sees 1.0 shots per game and has an overall xG figure of 2.21.
Fornals is a player I looked to earlier in the season and I'm confident that a run in the team between now and the end of the season will see him post a regular high shot total which should lead to goals. Like Bowen, the price may go towards the end of the season and like Bowen, I'm also willing to take the 90/1 on FORNALS TO SCORE 2+ GOALS in this game.
The value comes into play here but his more advanced position this season, combined with West Ham's own attacking showings and Newcastle's shaky defence, do give hope that a small stakes play on the 90/1 may land in this contest.
Ultimately, this should be a game where West Ham win, and even with the superstitions about the early kick-off, I'd have little issue in taking their even money price to double your stake. Instead, with the prices on offer, it's worth backing BOWEN and FORNALS to be among the away goals.
Newcastle v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Jarrod Bowen to score anytime at 3/1 (Unibet)
- 1pt Pablo Fornals to score anytime at 7/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 0.5pts Jarrod Bowen to score 2+ goals at 24/1 (Unibet)
- 0.5pts Pablo Fornals to score 2+ goals at 90/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-3 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (14/04/21)
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