Fresh from his 10 points of profit on Monday, Joe Rindl returns with a best bet for Newcastle's Friday night match with newly crowned champions Manchester City.
Football betting tips: Newcastle v Manchester City
2pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/5 (General)
Manchester City will walk out to a thoroughly deserved guard of honour at St. James' Park after they reclaimed the Premier League title with three games to spare following Manchester United's defeat to Leicester on Tuesday.
The pressure is off for the visitors, while in-form Newcastle have already guaranteed their safety with a string of good results.
Pep Guardiola, now a three-time Premier League winning manager, sees his side lead Infogol’s expected goals for (xGF), expected goals against (xGA) and expected points tables.
A quadruple is no longer possible after defeat in the FA Cup, but the chance to finish with European glory is very much on the cards with the Cityzens favourites in their first Champions League final.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
How City's defence has them set for a treble
At the beginning the season City were severely exposed against Leicester and Leeds, conceding a total of 5.73 expected goals against (xGA) in those two matches, performances that provoked a significant shift in Guardiola’s approach.
City tightened up at the back.
The champions posted astounding defensive numbers across their next 24 league matches, allowing an average of 0.62 xGA per game and conceding just 10 goals, including two penalties and one own goal.
Indeed, limiting opponents to so few scoring opportunities was the foundation required ahead of a 15-game winning run that gave City an almost unassailable lead at the top of the table.
Back Man City to beat Newcastle
Defensive security is not something which has been associated with Newcastle for much of this season.
Only four clubs - Sheffield United, West Brom, Southampton and Crystal Palace - have conceded more than the Magpies this season.
In a relegation fight that had seemed over since December, Steve Bruce’s Newcastle were the only side looking to make things interesting. For a few brief minutes last month, Fulham were provisional out of the drop zone at Newcastle’s expense.
But after a run of just two wins in 21 games, Bruceball is back with strikers Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin dragging Newcastle to three wins from their past five.
It includes a dominant 4-2 victory over Champions League-chasing Leicester last time.
But when it comes to Manchester City, the Etihad outfit are in a whole league of their own.
Oh, and Wilson's injured his hamstring again and has been ruled out for the final three games of the season. Gulp.
Newcastle haven’t beaten a top six side this campaign and I don’t see things changing on Friday night. City won’t be in party mode, there are places in the Champions League final starting XI to fight for.
MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS is widely available at odds-against, and it’s a punt the Sporting Life team have had a lot of success with this season, with 16 of City’s 26 league wins seeing this bet land.
It has also been a success in 16 of their 22 matches in other competitions (Carabao Cup, FA Cup and UCL) this term.
In a fixture surrounded by short odds for an away win, this is the play to make.
Newcastle v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/5 (General)
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (12/05/21)
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