Newcastle host Liverpool in a seriously important Saturday Night Football clash. Liam Kelly previews the match-up and provides two bets of interest.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Over 12.5 Newcastle shots at 5/6 (Unibet)
1pt Newcastle to beat Liverpool at 6/4 (General)
St. James' Park hosts a massive fixture in terms of European qualification and which, if any, competition Newcastle and Liverpool might be headed for.
Newcastle's nine-point advantage over Saturday evening's opponents suddenly looks a little small considering the Reds have a game in hand, alongside the level the two sides have played to this season.
Indeed, Liverpool were desperate for a turning point in a disastrous campaign. Was the 2-0 Merseyside derby win over Everton (xG: LIV 2.13-0.50 EVE) the start of something good?
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Newcastle 6/4 | Draw 5/2 | Liverpool 17/10
Personally, I'm still extremely sceptical that a victory over a shorthanded, poor Everton team is enough to change my mind when it comes to Liverpool being an easy touch this term.
Although there was clearly a bit more energy about Jürgen Klopp's side in the derby, the Toffees, with little presence from an attacking perspective, came closest to scoring first on Monday before folding tamely after allowing a soft counter-attacking opening goal.
Newcastle represent a far tougher task, especially in the North East, and the fact that Liverpool lead the league in big chances conceded (61) gives me pause on the idea that Liverpool might be back, making NEWCASTLE TO WIN my value play at a general 6/4.
The visitors average 2.08 expected goals against (xGA) away from home in the Premier League, too, a far better barometer to the Reds' actual level than a single rivalry match would suggest.
Newcastle's 'issue' in what has been a spectacular season thus far, has been drawing matches they should be winning based on their displays.
That problem has reared its head in their most recent matches, but their performances have at least been trustworthy amid home comforts this term, posting a +14.9 expected goal difference (xGD) in an unbeaten league campaign as hosts.
As a consequence, a home win is fancied.
A selection that makes most appeal, however, is the 5/6 available about OVER 12.5 NEWCASTLE SHOTS with Unibet.
Newcastle are a force to be reckoned with in terms of shots taken at St. James', averaging 17.9 attempts per game in their 11 home fixtures in the Premier League.
Eddie Howe's side have only failed to breach the 12.5 mark in three of those matches — against Manchester City, Chelsea and West Ham.
Up against a subpar defensive team, I fancy Newcastle to make that line look too low.
Newcastle v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 12.5 Newcastle shots at 5/6 (Unibet)
- 1pt Newcastle to beat Liverpool at 6/4 (General)
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (16/02/23)
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