Quadruple chasing Liverpool face a tricky looking game on Saturday, travelling to face in-form Newcastle. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Liverpool to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 (Coral)
Alex Keble thinks this is a potential banana skin for Liverpool, discussing in his column why Newcastle are a bad match-up for Liverpool, and I tend to agree that this will be a major test for the Reds.
However, they are playing at juggernaut levels, beating everyone in front of them, and doing so with relative ease. They are making this game we love look incredibly easy.
I do think that this game at St. James' Park does represent Liverpool's toughest remaining Premier League game, mainly due to the way the Magpies are playing currently.
- Liverpool remaining schedule - NEW (a), TOT (h), AVL (a), SOU (a), WOL (h)
Newcastle have won six straight home games as they welcome the quadruple chasers, and have lost just one of 12 home games since the appointment of Eddie Howe. St. James' is becoming a fortress.
Newcastle's fortunes began to turn around over the Christmas period, and since Boxing Day, only the traditional 'big six' have collected more expected points (xP) per game than Howe's men.
Also, in that time frame, the Magpies boast the fifth best defensive process in the league, allowing just 1.21 xGA per game. The big question though; can they limit THIS Liverpool team?
The answer to that is likely no, they won't be able to keep Liverpool completely quiet, but the data suggests they can hang in this game and avoid a blowout.
Despite having a taxing week - playing Sunday, Wednesday, Saturday - Liverpool's squad depth now allows them to rotate without any drop off in quality or process, which is exactly why they have managed to fight on all fronts into the start of May.
The Reds represent the best attacking team in the league (2.60 xGF per game), so thinking that a rejuvenated Newcastle defence would be able to shut them out seems extremely far-fetched, but it does lead me to believe Liverpool may struggle to score three or four.
That then brings the LIVERPOOL TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS bet into play at a best price of 5/4.
Controlled wins have been the order of the day for Liverpool of late, and this could well be another of that ilk given the dangers Newcastle pose.
Klopp's side don't only boast an incredible attacking process, but they are comfortably the second best defensive team in the league too, allowing just 0.96 xGA per game, which goes some way to explaining why they have kept 10 clean sheets in their last 13, and seven in their last eight.
Newcastle deserve respect in this game, but Liverpool are on a different level to just about every team in the world right now, and are finding winning to be a habit. Expect that to continue on Saturday, even if it happens to be in unconvincing fashion.
Only two of Newcastle's 16 league games since Boxing Day have seen Over 3.5 Goals, while this bet would have won in eight of Liverpool's last 13 league games.
Newcastle v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Liverpool to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 (Coral)
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (28/04/22)
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