Sunday sees Newcastle welcome Leicester with both teams drawing last time out. Tom Carnduff is looking at a big price goalscorer bet.
Football betting tips: Newcastle v Leicester
0.5pts Ciaran Clark to score first at 50/1
1pt Ciaran Clark to score anytime at 20/1
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Newcastle v Leicester
- 14:15 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 17/4 | Draw 3/1 | Away 8/13
It's now five games without a win for Newcastle, although they deserve credit for somehow finding a way to keep out Liverpool in their last outing. They posed an attacking threat of their own and it ended up being a game that could have gone either way. It's been one of few positives for Newcastle this season.
Leicester aren't in the best of form either with just one win across their last four. They were held to a 1-1 draw by a Crystal Palace side who have been poor, that followed a 2-2 draw with Manchester United. It has been a tough run of games for them and they will be targeting this one for victory.
The Asian Handicap currently has Leicester at -0.75 and even with that point against Liverpool, it's really tough to get on board with this Newcastle side going on a run of good results which includes victory here. Infogol's model based on performance has them sitting in 17th while the Foxes are put in fifth, slightly lower than their current third-place position.
In the games against Manchester City and Liverpool, there was some fantastic goalkeeping that helped out the defence. Both teams posted an xG figure much higher than their actual goals tally (City 3.31, Liverpool 1.47) and if those opportunities found the back of the net, instead of Karl Darlow, we'd be talking about a different story.
It's a game where the outright market provides little interest. Leicester are odds-on while Newcastle are a team that are hardly appealing for victory - a narrow win, a draw and a 5-2 hammering in their three consecutive games against the three newly-promoted teams underlines that. Instead, Newcastle defender Ciaran Clark provides great value in the goalscorer market with 50/1 available on the first and 20/1 for anytime.
So close for Newcastle!
— Amazon Prime Video Sport (@primevideosport) December 30, 2020
Ciaran Clark 𝒂𝒍𝒎𝒐𝒔𝒕 nods @NUFC ahead 😮#PLonPrime #NEWLIV pic.twitter.com/AJo59Z36cD
The centre-back struck in the defeat at Leeds and should have had another against Liverpool had it not been for a great save from Reds goalkeeper Alisson. He's only featured in seven games after missing the first part of the season, but a shots on target rate of 0.28 per game is fairly high for a player in his position.
Only Andy Carroll (3.8) has won more aerial duels than Clark (3.7) in the Newcastle squad this season. Considering the highest figure in Leicester's team is Jonny Evans on 3.4, we could expect to see Clark get a good opportunity to strike from a corner or free-kick.
And this has been a problem area for Leicester. Only Leeds (9) and Sheffield United (8) have conceded more from set-piece situations than the Foxes (7) in the Premier League. The fact that Newcastle have seen at least four corners in their favour in four of their last five home games should give them a chance to strike from here.
With Sheffield United up next for Newcastle after this game, Clark is certainly worth remembering in the goalscorer market if a goal doesn't come. Considering his recent performances, Leicester's luck defending set-pieces and the lack of appeal in the outright market, the Magpies defender is a far more attractive bet in both goalscorer markets.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Newcastle v Leicester best bets
Opta facts
- Newcastle have lost seven of their last nine Premier League meetings with Leicester (W2), losing both against the Foxes in 2019-20 by an aggregate score of 0-8.
- Leicester haven’t lost their first league game in any of the last 12 calendar years (W8 D4), since losing 1-3 at QPR in 2008. The Foxes have kept a clean sheet in each of their last five such games, winning the last three in a row.
- Newcastle United won their last Premier League game played on Sunday, beating Everton 2-1 in November – the Magpies haven’t won consecutive Sunday games in the competition since a run of three in May 2018 (winning vs Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea).
- After drawing none of their last 18 Premier League games, Leicester’s last two in the competition have ended level with the Foxes coming from behind both times.
- Newcastle manager Steve Bruce hasn’t won any of his seven home meetings with Leicester in all competitions (D4 L3) – the Foxes are the only side he’s faced more than twice at home without ever winning in his managerial career.
Odds correct at 1515 GMT (01/01/21)
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