Leeds beat Newcastle 5-2 in December and will hold confidence in their meeting on Tuesday night. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Raphinha to score anytime at 18/5
0.5pts Raphinha to score from outside the area at 16/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Newcastle v Leeds
- 18:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 29/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 10/11
It's set to be a quiet January for both Newcastle and Leeds, but the former is in a more desperate situation for signings. Steve Bruce's side are sliding down the table, sitting 16th and without a win in any competition since the narrow 2-1 victory over West Brom at the beginning of December.
Leeds' 2021 hasn't been great either but a trip to a big-six side, a changed team away in the cup and a tough pitch at home have all played their part in the lack of return. They are yet to score in this calendar year too but that should change as they head north.
They are boosted by problems at the back for Newcastle. Federico Fernandez and Paul Dummett (both illness) and Ciaran Clark (calf) are expected to miss out, while Javier Manquillo, who made his first appearance since November at Aston Villa on Saturday evening, is a doubt.
This time of the season brings quick turnarounds in fixtures and that should benefit Leeds here. They won the encounter at Elland Road 5-2 around a month ago. There was no 'Bielsa burnout' on display - the Whites blowing away the opposition with a dominant final 15 minutes.
One player who did star that day, although didn't get his name onto the scoresheet, was Raphinha. The Leeds winger operated on the left as opposed to the right against Brighton but we can expect him to return to his more natural position on Tuesday. He had a huge total of seven shots when the two sides last met.
He's 15/8 for an assist, a player I'd have very little issue in including in my fantasy football team, but you can get almost double those odds on backing the Leeds man to get one of the few goals they are expected to score. He should have a very enjoyable evening coming up against Jamal Lewis - Raphinha is likely to win the majority of the battles between the two.
We could get into the technical details of Raphinha's performances but the top line is that he's very good. An exciting winger with an ability to run at defenders, cut inside, and also find the net from distance. He's the type of player that gets fans off their seats, and if Elland Road was allowed to be packed out as per usual on a regular basis, we'd probably hear his name chanted more than others.
A goal anytime at a price of 18/5 looks really attractive based on his performance in the 5-2 win. Only Patrick Bamford (3.6) sees more shots per game on average than Raphinha (2.2), he should have more than the two on his tally so far this season.
Alongside the anytime scorer odds, it's also worth a small stakes play on a goal coming from outside the area. Both of his goals in a Leeds shirt have come from distance (Everton and West Brom) and he's demonstrated an ability to score from range. Of those seven shots against Newcastle, two came from outside the area while two were from the very edge.
Leeds' near enough even money price on victory is a surprise, even if they have lost their last two Premier League outings. We could expect that to be shorter, and wins for Leeds and West Ham make a nice Tuesday early kick-off double, but the better price in this game can be found in Raphinha making the most of a depleted Newcastle defence.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-3 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Newcastle v Leeds best bets
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (25/01/21)
Opta facts
- Newcastle United last hosted Leeds United for a league match in April 2017 in the Championship, drawing 1-1 with Chris Wood netting a 90th minute equaliser for the Whites.
- Leeds won 5-2 against Newcastle in December in the reverse Premier League meeting, last completing a league double over the Magpies in the 1975-76 campaign under Jimmy Armfield, which was also the last time they won back-to-back league games against the Magpies.
- Newcastle United are looking to avoid losing both home and away Premier League games against a newly promoted club in a season for only the third time, previously doing so against Charlton Athletic in 2000-01 and Watford in 2015-16.
- Newcastle have managed just 9.1 shots per game in home Premier League games this season (82 in 9 games) – since 2003/04, their previous lowest total at St James’ Park was 11.8, in 2017-18.
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