Newcastle United were always going to suffer a comedown.
- Published before Boxing Day defeat by Nott'm Forest
Qualification for the Champions League came well ahead of schedule and Eddie Howe must have known that managing reaction to decline would be the primary task of 2023/24.
He will also know that this year, this mini-funk, is most likely a mere intermission: a moment of rest before the next tsunami of Saudi oil blasts through the Premier League to raise Newcastle United into the elite.
How long that pause lasts, and whether Howe makes it through with his job intact, is a complicated question.
Many assume the ambitions of the Saudi Public Investment Fund have been restricted by the realities of financial fair play but that is not necessarily the case. The holding pattern we are in is tense.
Whatever the verdict the 115 charges levelled by the Premier League at Manchester City will have seismic implications on the future of the sport.
The European Court of Justice’s finding that the UEFA and FIFA ban on clubs joining breakaway leagues is unlawful has immediately triggered the revival of the Super League idea, which threatens to tear European football apart.
Meanwhile, bubbling away in the background are the Premier League’s discussions on how exactly to run itself.
It recently voted against a proposal to temporarily ban loans of players between clubs that share the same ownership and – more importantly, though the lede was buried – voted against tougher rules on clubs doing sponsorship deals with companies that have ownership links.
We do not know what Saudi Arabia’s intentions are for Newcastle, but we do know that, even if they wanted, they were never going to be able to do a Manchester City.
In the post-FFP world, any plan to lavishly outspend earnings will take time, patience, and a whole lot of legislative wrangling to create the terms for disruption.
So it is possible, though speculative, to say Newcastle are only just getting started and that supporters undeterred by the ethical or moral failings of their owners will be pleased to hear the suspension of their ascent may only be temporary.
But suspended it is. Eddie Howe’s team look shattered.
Two more players - Fabian Schar and Joelinton - limped off in the first half of their win over Fulham captain Jamaal Lascelles was the latest to be struck down in the chastening defeat by Luton. It's becoming a viscous cycle: injuries are stopping squad rotation but the overload on the first XI sends more and more to the treatment table.
Mind you, seven of Howe’s first-choice XI have played at least 14 of Newcastle’s 18 Premier League games so far, while five have had a part in 24 or more of their 26 matches in all competitions.
Their injuries aren’t necessarily as bad as people make out, and not particularly any worse than those suffered by, for example, Aston Villa, whose Europa Conference League participation means they have had a calendar just as busy.
Perhaps there is something in the gut-busting, explosive style deployed by Howe that is particularly tiring.
But more likely, the idea that Newcastle are tired or suffering too many injuries is simply the retrofitting of a narrative trying to explain what doesn’t need explaining; to work out why last season’s overachievers are simply regressing to the mean.
On the one hand, Newcastle have already lost more Premier League games (7) than in the entirety of last season and have conceded 22 goals, two thirds of last season’s total (33). But on the other, they are only five points off fifth-placed Manchester City and (this one might come as a surprise) they’ve won five consecutive league games at St James' Park.
There is no crisis here, just a mild fall back into the pot of teams challenging for European competition.
Tottenham’s attention-grabbing opening run and Aston Villa’s outrageous climb towards the summit has put Newcastle in a poor light, but there is no reason to criticise Howe and his players – especially not with so much good news on the horizon.
First of all, Newcastle’s Champions League adventure is over and despite the disappointment of an early exit their 4-1 victory over Paris Saint-Germain was joyous enough to call the campaign a success. Their EFL Cup defeat in midweek is another hit to the ego, but it means Newcastle are now back to playing once a week through until May.
That should clear up the injuries and relieve any fatigue, with Harvey Barnes – appearing only twice in the league so far – likely to provide a huge boost to the team when he returns in January, giving Newcastle the opportunity to push further clear of Manchester United and Chelsea to secure a place in next year’s Europa League.
That would be a solid achievement for Howe and leave Newcastle right on course – for what, exactly, we do not know. Judging by Saudi Arabia’s aggressive investment in its own domestic product, and its successful pursuit of the 2034 World Cup, they will aim very, very high.
Let’s just wait and see if Ruben Neves pulls on a Newcastle shirt next month.
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