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Newcastle United v Wolves analysis: 'Two clubs moving in opposite directions'
The opening chapter of a Premier League season always sets the most stubborn narratives.
The perspective on a club’s campaign is disproportionately weighted towards the beginning, hence why we are so often shocked by late arrivals in the top ten or late collapses into the bottom three. The middle and final thirds of the season are no less important - but that just isn’t how it feels.
Which is why it will come as a shock to many readers to learn that since Julen Lopetegui arrived in England on November 5, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Newcastle United have won the same number of points: 17 apiece.
They go into Sunday’s headline Premier League match separated by 14 points but the mistake of hiring Bruno Lage, now corrected, means it is genuinely plausible that Wolves – relegation fodder in August, September and October – are more or less as good as Eddie Howe’s Newcastle.
With the two clubs moving in the opposite direction over the last couple of months, it is even possible that Wolves will finish above Newcastle. The likelihood of that happening is slim, but nevertheless it is remarkable that the two clubs should be so close together when they meet on Sunday.
Here’s a look at how Lopetegui got Wolves firing, why things are slipping for Howe, and whether Sunday’s head-to-head will be a sign of things to come…
Newcastle need Saint-Maximin and Isak to overcome predictability
Howe’s football has been efficient to a flaw. His 4-3-3 focuses almost entirely on crowding the central third of the pitch both in and out of possession, with narrow attacking lines drawn in by wingers instructed primarily to run diagonally into the centre and a defensive style that does not press high or drop deep.
For a long time it worked well. Focusing on quick transitions rather than steady possession, Bruno Guimaraes’ distribution to free-running number eights gave Newcastle good forward momentum, topped up by Kieran Trippier’s excellent set-piece delivery and a strong defensive record that took the pressure off those forwards.
But being so squeezed into the middle has its flaws, and as Newcastle’s defensive record regresses to the mean (they might have only conceded 17 goals, but their Expected Goals Against or xGA is 27.5) opponents are increasingly recognising that to sit narrow, and deep, is to nullify Howe’s sharp counter-attacks through the middle of the park.
The other issue might be Miguel Almiron’s inevitable decline from a hot streak that gave Newcastle wins in even matches, although fortunately for the Magpies they have ready-made replacements for the energy lost in the front-line.
It is telling that Newcastle rank fourth for attempted take-ons (18.7 per match) but 12th for success rate (41.4%). This is a team built on direct and urgent football when the ball turns over, just without a consistently effective front-line to enact it.
Allan Saint-Maximin has had a difficult season, mainly because Howe has not been satisfied with his work-rate, but he is back in the team and should soon return to his best dribbling form.
Similarly, Alexander Isak looked sharp in his cameo against Manchester United in the Carabao Cup final, weaving between the opposition defensive and midfield lines. Together, these two can add extra forward intent, pushing Newcastle back up the table.
Wolves boss Lopetegui preaches hard work and simple football
Wolves are unlikely to stop climbing. Lopetegui has quickly installed a relatively simple 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 formation that has made his team difficult to beat, but before we get onto the tactical intricacies it is important to note that he has changed the culture of the club.
The players have reported a significant shift in mentality thanks to a hard-working coaching staff who are improving small details, such as reintroducing all-staff lunches, modernising the fitness regime, and spending time helping individual players improve aspects of their game.
Together, it has brightened the mood in the dressing room and focused minds. Focus is easier, of course, when there is a strong tactical plan to follow.
Lopetegui is a reactive tactician who spends several days in the build-up to matches preparing his team for how to expose opposition weaknesses.
And while this is giving Wolves the edge in tight matches it all comes from a foundation of defensive sturdiness assembled in January: Craig Dawson and Mario Lemina, experienced Premier League players, have made Wolves a more vicious team.
On the ball, Wolves are naturally more focused on retaining possession than under Lage, although again the basis is power and cautious consistency throughout the team. Matheus Nunes has become a crucial player either alongside or just in front of Ruben Neves to provide an elegant, yet feisty, axis in central midfield.
Their primary job is to shift the ball wide for direct dribblers in Pablo Sarabia – another January recruit excelling under Lopetegui – and Adama Traore, who supply new signing Matheus Cunha and/or Raul Jimenez.
Key battles on Sunday
Newcastle and Wolves prioritise low-scoring matches and while the former is in a rut the latter is built on patient possession and pragmatism, meaning this is unlikely to be a high-scoring or particularly entertaining game. Nevertheless there are some key areas in which the attackers hold a disproportionate advantage.
Wolves are likely to continue with the 4-2-3-1 that beat Tottenham, only with impactful subs Traore and Jimenez starting ahead of Pedro Neto and the injured Diego Costa.
In reaction to Newcastle’s natural narrowness, Lopetegui will want to emphasise width, meaning an even greater focus upon Nunes and Neves stretching the play with longer passes out to Traore and Sarabia to attack the full-backs and supply Jimenez. The ability of Kieran Trippier and Dan Burn to shut down their respective wingers could decide this match.
At the other end, Wolves’ biggest weak spot is Nelson Semedo and defending their right flank: all five goals they have conceded in their last five matches have come down this side of the pitch. Joelinton’s suspension may further stunt Newcastle’s speed in the transition, although even without a connecting number eight Saint-Maximin or Anthony Gordon will fancy their chances up against Semedo.
The game will be played in the wings and decided by the defensive solidity of the full-backs: a fitting tactical battle for two sides who squeeze the middle and are difficult to beat - two sides surprisingly similar in style and quality as Howe’s side fall back to their natural level and Lopetegui extracts the best out of a very talented squad.
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