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Netherlands vs England betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
1pt No first goalscorer at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Jordan Pickford Man of the Match at 20/1 (bet365)
Four teams are two games away from becoming the champions of Europe.
How funny would an England vs France final be? Anything over even money for the 0-0 correct score is worth a look for sure.
By the time you read this, the first semi-final has probably already bored you to tears, so get ready for the next!
Gareth Southgate leads his nation into a third semi-finals in four attempts while this is the Netherlands' first at the Euros in 20 years.
England have been a long way from their best but boy are they efficient.
Five games, three draws and no more than a goal scored (in 90 mins) against Serbia, Denmark, Slovenia, Slovakia and Switzerland.
The lack of creativity is a concern. England have only racked up an xG of 4.3, despite playing two games fewer than Croatia (6.6) and Czechia (5.1) those nations have racked up significantly higher totals.
At half time against Switzerland, there had not been a shot on target for either side for only the second time in Euros history.
The Three Lions only scored twice in the group stage of the last Euros as well but the worrying thing is, they came alive in the knockouts netting nine times on route to the final. It is hard to envisage Gareth Southgate’s side sparking into life in Dortmund on Wednesday.
Semi finals are rarely great spectacles either, recent history shows as much.
Of the last 14 Euro semis, nine have seen two or fewer goals, seven have ended square after 90 minutes and four have ended goalless. It is the latter which interests me here.
The Netherlands have been refreshingly attacking in the knockout stages netting five times in two games but having reached their first Euros semi since 2004, Oranje could be a lot more pragmatic.
This was the case against France, which was the first stalemate of the whole tournament when the sides met on matchday two.
Although the sides racked up an xG of 1.90 between them, only one player had an attempt worth more than 0.25 which tells you everything you need to know about the quality of chances created.
With plenty of parallels between the French and English teams, another 0-0 could be on the cards.
With 10 own goals scored this summer, backing NO FIRST GOALSCORER is the bet so we are covered if the only goal of the game is an own goal.
Given how I expect this game to go, I think JORDAN PICKFORD is worth a tout to win MAN OF THE MATCH at 20/1 with bet365.
85% - Best save percentages by goalkeepers with 10+ games at the European Championship in history:
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) July 8, 2024
87% Iker Casillas
85% Jordan Pickford
81% Gianluigi Buffon
80% Edwin van der Sar
78% Andreas Isaksson
Guardians. pic.twitter.com/Ipy9WWvvLu
In 48 games so far this summer, only three keepers have taken home the accolade.
One thing to call out here is careful with the small print. Some firms, like Sky Bet, are settling this market via Opta rather than who is awarded Man of the Match by UEFA. Here, we're talking about the UEFA award.
Surprise, surprise, Georgia’s Giorgi Mamardashvili won it for his performance for Georgia against Czechia. Poland’s Łukasz Skorupski was awarded it after the 1-1 draw with France. Crucially, Diogo Costa, took the award after saving three out of three penalties in the shootout against Slovenia.
Three games have gone to penalties so far this summer and one stopper won man of the match.
Do you get my drift?
Jordan Pickford has saved a penalty in every penalty shootout he’s played in for England. 🏴
— Jon Shea (@jonsheaa) July 6, 2024
Oh and here they all are. 👇🏻
🐐🐐🐐 pic.twitter.com/jD4YgnXi91
Pickford is fast developing a reputation as a penalty specialist. He has saved four of the 14 penalties he has faced at major tournaments which is twice as many as all the other England goalkeepers ever, combined.
This bet does not hinge entirely on this match going to penalties, although that would be great.
Pickford is over performing the xG he has faced, kept two clean sheets and has 80% save percentage.
Odds correct at 1400 BST (08/07/24)
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