Back-to-back victories saw Scotland avoid relegation from the top-flight of the Nations League in November, but they did have to settle for a March play-off against Greece for a return to League A in the next edition.

Steve Clarke's side beat Croatia before following it up with a vital victory in Poland - both games where they were priced as the outsiders.

In Greece, they face a side who should remain high on confidence despite a lengthy break from international action.

An emotional win over England at Wembley in October wasn't enough in the end to secure top spot, although they can draw plenty of positives from taking a side who have reached the last two European Championship finals to the last matchday.

Scotland ranked the highest of those from League A who will feature in this round of the play-offs. It feels like it's a case of don't lose the first leg and back yourself to get the job done in front of a home crowd on Sunday.

What are the best bets?

The styles of both teams could make this a bit of a low-event 90 or so minutes.

Scotland ranked very much on the lower end of the scale for engaged defensive actions (tackles and fouls) while Greece weren't a great deal higher either.

You'd expect the visitors to aim to contain and frustrate. The one thing they won't want to do is take a deficit back to Hampden with them.

Cards could therefore be something to consider for the Unders. Referee Tobias Stieler showed four in France's win over Belgium with three when also officiating the French in their draw with Israel in November.

Instead, I do think Scotland could have the aerial edge over their opponents and I'll side with the 50/1 on JOHN SOUTTAR TO SCORE FIRST, with another play on the 22s for SOUTTAR ANYTIME.

The Rangers centre-back has scored for his country previously despite only having nine caps to his name - that coming in a World Cup qualifier against Denmark in November 2021.

His league campaign has returned an average of 0.6 shots per game, with 0.4 coming across their Europa League outings.

Souttar featured in their previous four Nations League contests - playing 90 minutes in each - with shots coming in away games against Croatia and Poland.

Apart from Konstantinos Mavropanos, Greece don't have a great deal of an aerial presence in their side, particularly if Wolfsburg's Konstantinos Koulierakis lines up alongside him as expected.

Scotland saw an aerial duel success rate of 57.59% across their previous six - that's the fifth-best of all 54 teams involved in the competition. Greece's 47.92% puts them 36th.

A handful of corners is all Scotland may need to provide Souttar with a strong chance to strike. At the prices, it's worth a go.

Team news

Steve Clarke could revert to a back-three in Piraeus

Greece narrowly missed out on an automatic promotion spot to League A and aren't expected to change too much about their side from the last international break.

Captain Anastasios Bakasetas is missing though with the Panathinaikos attacking midfielder struggling with injury.

Newcastle goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos is likely to continue as the preferred goalkeeper while West Ham's Mavropanos and Liverpool's Kostas Tsimikas should feature in the back line.

With Ryan Christie suspended for this contest after picking up his second yellow card in the final group game against Poland, Scotland's Clarke is lacking in wide options.

That could well mean they revert to the back-three system we saw at Euro 2024. The selection of five natural centre-backs is another strong hint this may well be the case.

Kieran Tierney is back fit and featuring for Arsenal and he could sit on the left of those three central defenders despite it not being his preferred position.

Lyndon Dykes is injured and Lawrence Shankland hasn't been picked this time around, meaning it's likely we'll see Che Adams leading the line.

Predicted line-ups

Greece XI: Vlachodimos; Rota, Mavropanos, Koulierakis, Tsimikas; Mantalos, Siopis; Masouras, Pelkas, Tzolis; Pavlidis.

Scotland XI: Gordon; Hanley, Souttar, Tierney; Ralston, Gilmour, McLean, Robertson; McTominay, McGinn; Adams.

Match facts

Both previous meetings between Greece and Scotland were in qualifying for EURO 1996, with both nations winning 1-0 on home soil.
Scotland have won each of their last two matches, more than they’d won in their previous 16 combined (W1 D5 L10).
Greece won seven out of 10 matches during 2024 (D1 L2). It was their most wins in a single calendar year since winning seven in 2013, last winning more in 2008 (eight wins).
Scotland have won their first match in just one of the last eight calendar years (D4 L3), a 3-0 home win against Cyprus in March 2023.
Greece have won six of their last seven matches (L1), the exception being a 3-0 defeat to England. They’ve scored 2+ goals in all six of those wins, with each of their last 15 wins seeing them do so. Their last 1-0 win was in June 2022 against Kosovo.
Greece have won more matches in the UEFA Nations League than any other nation, winning 16 of their 24 matches in the competition (D3 L5).
John McGinn has scored in each of his last two Scotland appearances and is looking to score in three in a row for the first time since November 2019. McGinn’s goal against Poland last November was his 20th Scotland goal, becoming the fifth player to net 20 goals for the Tartan Army, along with Denis Law (30), Kenny Dalglish (30), Hughie Gallacher (23) and Lawrie Reilly 22.
Since the 2020-21 UEFA Nations League, only Norway’s Erling Haaland (19 goals, 3 assists) has been involved in more UEFA Nations League goals than Greece’s Tasos Bakasetas (7 goals, 7 assists), while no player has more assists in that time than Bakasetas (level with Kevin De Bruyne on seven).

Odds correct at 1210 GMT (18/03/25)

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