The Boys in Green’s six points came from two wins over Finland, beating them 2-1 in Helsinki and 1-0 at home. Those were the only three goals Ireland scored though, conceding 12 times in total.

Bulgaria squeezed into second place of their group in League C with a point in the final group game against Belarus, finishing on nine points (W2 D3 L1) and went unbeaten on their own patch.

Although they will want to make home advantage count on Thursday, this clash is expected to be one of fine margins, Sky Bet have under 2.5 goals priced at 4/9 and no first goalscorer at 6/1.

What are the best bets?

Eight of Bulgaria’s last 12 games have ended as draws, three of which have ended goalless.

Against Ireland, Bulgaria are also winless in seven (D5 L2) and both clashes in the Nations League in 2022/21 ended as draws.

Everything points towards a draw and probably a bore one but at the prices available, there is simply no value in the unders, the draw or the 0-0.

Interestingly, Ireland defender Shane Duffy grabbed the equaliser when the sides met in September 2020 and one of Ireland’s three goals in the Nations League group stage came from a set-piece. Can you see where I am going with this?

Liam Scales' equaliser against Finland was from a Robbie Brady dead ball.

Republic of Ireland defender Dara O'Shea

In a game that promises to be low margin, covering Ireland’s centre backs TO SCORE FIRST and TO SCORE ANYTIME seems the most logical way in.

Most firms offer each way terms on the first goalscorer market at 1/3 odds so splitting stakes across both markets, as advised above, actually returns more profit should a player score.

DARA O’SHEA is yet to break his international duck but has netted 12 times across his career, four of which coming across the last two seasons.

NATHAN COLLINS has scored twice for his nation, one coming against Greece in Euro 2024 qualification, and has two goals for Brentford in the Premier League this season.

Team news

Watford right winger Rocco Vata and James Abankwah, on loan at Watford from Udinese, received their first senior call ups for Ireland this international break.

Bristol Rovers frontman Sinclair Armstrong is back in the squad for the first time since 2023 and QPR defender Jimmy Dunne received his first senior Ireland call up since 2022.

None of the four Championship players are expected to go straight into the XI on Thursday though.

Liverpool’s Caoimhin Kelleher is expected to start in goal, with Collins and O'Shea ahead of him.

Evan Ferguson is expected to lead the line. The 20-year-old Republic could earn his 19th cap to become his nation's second highest appearance maker before the age of 21.

Troy Parrott should partner him in attack, he has netted 16 goals in Eredivisie and the Europa League this term.

Predicted line-ups

Bulgaria: Mitov; Popov, S Petrov, A Petkov, Nurnberger; Panayotov, Kraev, Milanov; M Petkov, Kolev, Kirilov

Republic of Ireland: Kelleher; Doherty, Collins, O'Shea, Brady; Moran, Cullen, Knight, Johnston; Parrott, Ferguson

Match facts

Bulgaria are winless in their last seven games against the Republic of Ireland in all competitions (D5 L2), with both meetings between the nations in the 2020-21 UEFA Nations League ending as draws.
Republic of Ireland are winless in their five away visits to face Bulgaria (D2 L3). Each of the last two have ended as 1-1 draws, with Ireland defenders Richard Dunne scoring in June 2009 and Shane Duffy in September 2020.
Bulgaria have drawn eight of their last 12 matches in all competitions (W3 D1), with three of their last eight games ending goalless.
Republic of Ireland have lost six of their last eight away games (W2), losing their last two, both in the UEFA Nations League (0-2 vs Greece, 0-5 vs England).
Across their last 32 games, Bulgaria have won just six times (D15 L11). Those six wins have come against nations ranked, at that time, in the FIFA World Rankings in 200th (Gibraltar), 64th (North Macedonia), 110th (Cyprus), 119th (Tanzania), 74th (Northern Ireland) and 89th (Luxembourg).
Among the 16 Group B nations in the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League, the Republic of Ireland ranked 14th for shots attempted (51), 13th for completed passes (1,746), 13th for touches in the opposition box (100) and 15th for possession average (39.2%).
Kiril Despodov created nine chances in the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League group stage, the most of any Bulgarian player. Despodov also registered the most xG of any Bulgaria player (1.9).
20-year-old Republic of Ireland striker Evan Ferguson has made 18 appearances for the national side and could overtake Ian Harte into outright second place for games played before the age of 21. Only Robbie Keane (25) has played more times before turning 21.

Odds correct at 1130 GMT (19/03/25)

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.

Like what you've read?