Football betting tips: National League
4pts Scunthorpe to win National League North at 2/1 (Betway)
2.5pts Barnet to finish in the top seven of the National League at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Altrincham to finish in the top seven of the National League at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Altrincham to finish in the top three of the National League at 40/1 (bet365)
0.5pt e.w. Kurt Willoughby to be National League top goalscorer at 40/1 (bet365 - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
After the promotion of big-hitters Wrexham and Notts County, this season’s Vanarama National League looks more far open and competitive than it has been for several years.
Plenty of sides will hold realistic play-off ambitions and it’s easy to envisage only small margins separating those who make the play-offs and those who fall into the bottom half.
Chesterfield are rightful favourites to take the title.
Last season’s beaten play-off finalists have recruited well in the summer - Sky Bet EFL stalwarts Tom Naylor and Will Grigg add experience at higher levels, while ex-Alfreton midfielder Bailey Hobson is a very shrewd addition.
At 9/4 though, I’m happy to let the Spireites go unbacked.
Barnet the best bet
Greater value is to be found in the 'Top 7' market, with last season’s fifth-placed club BARNET making plenty of appeal to REACH THE PLAYOFFS again at 2/1.
The Bees have sprinkled some tidy youngsters in and among an experienced core, with Sheffield United teenager Finley Potter rejoining the club on loan after a successful spell from February onwards last year.
Buzzing to be back, big season ahead!🐝🧡 https://t.co/LhUsFZevho
— Finley Potter (@FinleyPotter5) July 17, 2023
Creative midfielder Zak Brunt also joins from the Blades on a permanent basis having impressed during his time with Boreham Wood last year.
Manager Dean Brennan is one of the spikier characters in the league, but his record at both Barnet and former club Wealdstone is overwhelmingly positive.
There are very few reasons to think that Barnet will regress to any degree this season.
Don't underestimate Altrincham
ALTRINCHAM are also vastly underestimated at a best price of 12/1 - rank outsiders in some books - to MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.
Alty hinted at being a better side than their ultimate 17th-placed position suggested last season, playing progressive, attacking-minded football under former Nantwich boss Phil Parkinson (no, not that one).
Having failed to win any of their first eight games and languishing at the bottom of the table in mid-October, the Robins steadily rose to a peak of 10th to put themselves with touching distance of the play-offs before their form stalled at a crucial stage of season.
With a season as a professional club now under their belt, Alty appear poised to kick on and punch further above their weight this term.
✍️ We are delighted to announce the permanent return of Chris Conn-Clarke, who joins us for a club record fee.
— Altrincham FC (@altrinchamfc) June 17, 2023
Welcome home, @ClarkeConn 🏠
The permanent addition of Chris Conn-Clarke for a club-record fee is arguably the best bit of business the National League has seen this summer, with the Northern Ireland under-21s international among the outstanding players in the division during his time on loan last season.
He’ll be supplemented by attackers Justin Amaluzor, who showed quality in a poor Aldershot side last term, Dior Angus, who has demonstrated his capability in the National League for Barrow and Wrexham, and Regan Linney, who bagged 25 times for FC United prior to scoring seven for Altrincham after a February transfer.
Fellow attacking option Justin Donawa also turned down a new deal at Solihull to move north to Moss Lane. Midfield duo Isaac Marriott and Elliot Osborne blend robustness and dashes of individual quality.
The 40/1 to make the TOP THREE is also worth a small bet in a wide open league - a tempting price for a club moving in the right direction both on and off the pitch.
Willoughby is worth it
In a similar vein, the market for National League top scorer also appears competitive.
The likes of Paul Mullin, Macca Langstaff, Kabongo Tshimanga and Andy Dallas - star names in the division over recent seasons - are all now plying their trade in the EFL.
Will Grigg, a best-priced 6/1 favourite, drops down from Sky Bet League One but has only scored 15 league goals in the last three seasons, so it’s hard to make a case to back the Chesterfield man at such a skinny price.
Oldham striker Mike Fondop is positioned in the group behind Grigg at a general 14/1, but the journeyman's status is well established by now and his seasonal-best league tally remains at ten, which wouldn’t be anywhere near enough to threaten the placings in this market.
However, his potential strike partner KURT WILLOUGHBY is more interesting.
Part of the York side that won promotion to the fifth tier in 2021/22, the 26-year-old remained in the National League North last season, notching 27 goals in all competitions for Chester.
🔵 @HarryTyrer ⏩ @_AdamThomas_ ⏩ @DeclanWeeks ⏩ @Kurtwilloughby1 🔵
— Chester FC (@ChesterFC) April 11, 2023
Goal of the season? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/7iVMrrMnb3
Willoughby’s potential has long been apparent; prolific in lower tiers for AFC Blackpool and Clitheroe, he was capped by England C while scoring regularly for a struggling FC United side before making the step up the National League, though he was unable to dislodge Danny Rowe as the main striker during a year with AFC Fylde in 19/20.
He failed to make much of an impression during his first spell at Step 1, but Willoughby now has the benefit of several seasons as an established source of goals under his belt and, with unfinished business at this level, he should make a significant impact this time around as an attacking focal point for a title-chasing Latics side.
With four places on offer, the 40/1 for him to end the season as top scorer looks over-priced.
Scunny can bounce back
It's also worth having a look at the National League North TITLE market, as SCUNTHORPE look justified favourites in their bid to gain a first promotion since winning the League One play-off final in 2009.
The Iron’s troubles' since have been long-documented, though there’s renewed optimism at Glanford Park.
Previous owner Peter Swann has finally been replaced by David Hilton, who has invested heavily in an attempt to ensure Scunny spend no more than one season in the sixth tier.
Cal Roberts, an exciting, dynamic player during his time with Notts County, is an unbelievable signing for the level, having been the subject of a six-figure transfer to Aberdeen last summer.
✅ Pre-season
— Scunthorpe United FC (@SUFCOfficial) July 30, 2023
🔜 The serious stuff!
📸 @BroughtonPhotog / @ironboy072 #UTI #IRON pic.twitter.com/uRuHDfhEEz
He is joined by a whole host of established National League-quality players, including Maxim Kouogun, Will Evans, Andrew Boyce, Michael Kelly, Danny Elliott and Danny Whitehall.
Scunthorpe have also had the means to turn down offers from Oldham for Australian full-back Reagan Ogle, the shining light in last season’s relegated side - an action that would have been far from certain under previous management.
Every other side in the division can be backed at a double-figure price to win the league while Scunthorpe are no bigger than 2/1, illustrative of the significant gulf in quality between the favourites and their competitors.
Given their resources and the depth of their squad, I think Scunthorpe should be shorter still, so the Iron rate as a confident selection to get back on the up at the first attempt.
National League 23/24 outright best bets
- 4pts Scunthorpe to win National League North at 2/1 (Betway)
- 2.5pts Barnet to finish in the top seven of the National League at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
- 2pts Altrincham to finish in the top seven of the National League at 12/1 (bet365)
- 0.5pt Altrincham to finish in the top three of the National League at 40/1 (bet365)
- 0.5pt e.w. Kurt Willoughby to be National League top goalscorer at 40/1 (bet365 - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
Odds correct at 1745 BST (01/08/23)
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