- Lewis Tomlinson (@LTRacing_) enjoyed a profitable preview last season after tipping Altrincham top seven at 12/1 and Barnet top seven at 2/1
Football betting tips: National League
National League
3pts York to finish in the top seven at 15/8 (Betfred)
1.5pts e.w. Ollie Pearce to be top goalscorer at 16/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. York to win the the title at 18/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3)
0.5pt e.w. Dipo Akinyemi to be top goalscorer at 20/1 (bet365, William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt Rochdale to finish in the top seven at 9/4 (BetVictor)
National League North
1pt e.w. Scunthorpe to win the National League North at 15/2 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3)
National League South
1pt e.w. Boreham Wood to win the National League South at 6/1 (Betfred, BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3)
Particular bullishness about the strength of Barnet and Altrincham paid dividends last season as the column ended with a +23.5pts profit.
This time around though, I think it looks far trickier to be bullish about anything at all.
With financial big boys Stockport, Wrexham, Notts County and Chesterfield all out of the picture in recent editions, the upcoming Vanarama National League delivers the most open feel to it for a while.
Barnet are justifiable favourites; last season’s runners-up exited the playoffs in calamitous fashion but the Bees have strengthened again this summer and set a high standard - though the general 4/1 is too skinny to tempt me onside.
Solihull, Southend and Forest Green also look likely candidates to fighting out the title, but I think there’s value to be found elsewhere.
York can get it right this time
Despite blowing most of the league out of the water budget-wise, YORK finished last season at the other end of the table, requiring a helping hand from Ebbsfleet on the final day to keep them in the division by a single point.
For all chairman Matt Uggla may lack in charm to some, he makes up for in money, and York have once again impressed with their business in the transfer market.
📺 Marvin Armstrong picked out Billy Chadwick before the forward crossed for Ollie Pearce to sweep his shot in and level proceedings.#YCFC 🔴🔵 pic.twitter.com/VKZws0rS3m
— York City FC (@YorkCityFC) July 27, 2024
Ollie Pearce was THE outstanding striker in the NLS with Worthing last season, and alongside fellow ex-Mackerel man Joe Felix, links back up with their former gaffer Adam Hinshelwood.
From the incomings, Tyrese Sinclair has impressed for both Altrincham and Rochdale. Ashley Nathaniel-George and Cameron John are clever pick-ups on the left from Maidenhead and Rochdale respectively, while former Dorking stopper Harrison Male will finally provide the Minstermen with a clear first-choice number one.
Stability in the backline looks key after using FIVE different goalkeepers in the league last season.
New York City signing @CameronJohn_ was 5th among all left-backs for penalty-area touches per 90 last term 👣
— Vanarama (@Vanarama) August 1, 2024
Pleased with that one, Minstermen? 👇@YorkCityFC #TheVanarama | @TheVanaramaNL pic.twitter.com/iCcNOtFnw1
The permanent addition of Alex Hunt after a positive loan spell and an eye-catching signing of Ricky Aguiar from Swindon strengthens the midfield. The likes of Dan Batty, Billy Chadwick and DIPO AKINYEMI – for my money the best forward in the league – are all more than capable of playing for a team that could challenge for a TITLE.
Crucially, I’d also wager Uggla has made it third time lucky in terms of his managerial appointments at the LNER.
Michael Morton and Neal Ardley both underperformed with a squad that had admittedly been allowed to become bloated and lopsided, but Hinshelwood has trimmed plenty of the fat and recruited well.
The former Brighton academy coach played a front-footed style while in charge of Worthing and oversees a squad now whose strengths look loaded towards their attack.
📺 All three goals from earlier this afternoon, courtesy of @SpennymoorTown.#YCFC 🔴🔵
— York City FC (@YorkCityFC) August 3, 2024
Though still somewhat concerned about the ego and temperament of the chairman, York’s dreadful campaign last year should prove anomalous given the players they have on board and start the season with a staff I’m confident will provide an upgrade on their recent backroom teams.
The 18/1 available about them lifting the title makes each-way appeal, while the 15/8 about them to FINISH IN THE TOP SEVEN also looks value.
Staying with the Minstermen, I also think two of their key men make plenty of appeal in the top scorer market.
York will set up to outscore their opposition; from November up until his departure for his current role in February, Hinshelwood’s Worthing side netted three or more times in 13 of their last 21 games under his stewardship.
Back York's sharp shooters
As previously mentioned, AKINYEMI looked an outstanding footballer at this level, even in a struggling team last season.
He scored in over 50% of his games for Ayr before joining York for a six-figure fee, where he was still able to net 15 goals despite a slightly stop-start season.
📺 @MarvinGRAFT3R picked up the ball for City, driving forward with it before moving it onwards to @Dipo_Akinyemi.
— York City FC (@YorkCityFC) March 29, 2024
The rest is just pure Big Dips in his element. 👏#YCFC 🔴🔵 | 📲🤝 @BristolStMotors pic.twitter.com/1KZtwcwivq
Akinyemi did start several games towards the end of last season out wide and having done so, the man down the middle will surely be OLLIE PEARCE.
It’s hard to believe that, now aged 28, this will be Pearce’s first taste of Step 1 football, as his record at Steps 2 and 3 is hard to match.
Coming through at Bognor Regis Town, the striker scored 80 times for the Rocks before leaving them aged 22 to join Worthing, where he netted an impressive 155 times in 245 appearances.
His latest campaign saw him earn the National League South's Golden Boot award with 40 league goals – plus another three in two play-off games – and he reunites with a manager who clearly knows how to get the best out of him.
Available at 20/1 and 16/1 respectively, the pair make plenty of appeal to top the scoring charts.
Small value in Rochdale
Elsewhere in the National League, ROCHDALE finished in 11th in their first season at this level and look in a far healthier place heading into this season.
Tarryn Allarakhia, the standout performer for Wealdstone in recent seasons, is a good addition and the Spotland side merit a small punt to FINISH IN THE TOP SEVEN at 9/4; I’d certainly have them as a superior to the similarly-priced Maidenhead, Dagenham and Fylde.
Scunny can win the North
Moving into the regional leagues, SCUNTHORPE also start this season in a healthier place (a low bar, I know) than they have done for some time and should be in the mix at the top end of the National League North again.
The Iron failed to bounce back to the fifth tier at the first attempt, finishing eight points behind champions Tamworth, before losing out in a penalty shootout to Boston in the play-offs.
📸 𝐏𝐇𝐎𝐓𝐎𝐒
— Scunthorpe United FC (@SUFCOfficial) August 2, 2024
A selection of images from Steve Hope following this evening's encounter, with a full gallery to follow in due course.#UTI #IRON pic.twitter.com/c34QK76Obx
They were around 2/1 to win the league last season and I don’t think much has changed on the playing side – Reagan Ogle and Jacob Butterfield are the only players to have started that play-off fixture to have moved back into the National League in the summer - while the off-field situation under Michelle Harness looks to have brought some stability to Glanford Park in the first time in a decade.
With three places available each-way, I’m happy to back them again at 15/2 to LIFT THE TITLE.
Boreham Wood's bounce back?
And in the National League South, I think the experienced BOREHAM WOOD squad have enough about them to return to the fifth tier at the first attempt.
Luke Garrard’s long, and largely successful, reign at Meadow Park ended on a low note with their relegation last season, but Ross Jenkins, who did wonders to get Oxford City out of this league on a much smaller budget two years ago, is about as positive a replacement as all four Wood fans could’ve hoped for.
🤩 Introducing your new management team...
— Boreham Wood FC (@BOREHAM_WOODFC) May 15, 2024
🤝 We are delighted to announce Ross Jenkins as our head coach, with club legend Mark Ricketts becoming our assistant manager.
Lloyd Doyley completes the management team as our first team coach.#WeAreTheWood
Jenkins has been able to retain a core group of players who have shown their quality at National League level before; six of their starting XI that lost out in extra-time to Notts County in the promotion play-offs in 2022 remain with the club, as well as goalkeeper Nathan Ashmore, who ranks second on the list of all-time clean sheets in the fifth tier.
Junior Dixon, a prolific goalscorer in Birmingham’s youth teams, is also an eye-catching loan signing and will support Lee Ndlovu, a striker who - one injury hit campaign aside - has bagged double figures in each of his last five full seasons.
Though they’ve not been missed by the market in recent days - they were still available at 10/1 last week – there’s still plenty to like about Boreham Wood this season and 6/1 remains a fair each-way price for the Wood to be in the mix.
Odds correct at 1400 BST (06/08/24)
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