On the back of 13/5, 14/5 and 28/1 (e/w) winners in recent Monday Night Football instalments, Michael Beardmore returns with best bets for Leeds v Liverpool.
Football betting tips: Leeds v Liverpool
1pt Jack Harrison to score anytime at 9/1 (Sporting Index)
0.5pt e.w Stuart Dallas to score first at 25/1 (Bet 365) (1/3 odds 1-98 places)
Is it really seven months since Leeds announced their return to the top flight with that unforgettable glorious failure at Anfield, going down all guns blazing 4-3 against the reigning champions?
Much has changed since that night, of course – Liverpool have been knocked off their perch, already unable to retain the title it took them so long to win.
But little has changed for Monday's hosts Leeds, who continued to enthrall neutrals, United’s ten men claiming an improbable victory at Liverpool’s likely successors Manchester City last Saturday.
It’s amazing, then, that Marcelo Bielsa’s side are so underestimated by the bookmakers going into this fixture, especially given they are at home.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home: 19/5 | Draw 16/5 | Away 8/13
Liverpool, of course, have shown signs in recent weeks that they have dragged themselves back on track but if you dig a little deeper into their results, it’s hardly convincing stuff.
They edged a Jack Grealish-less Aston Villa, beat poor Arsenal, Wolves and Sheffield United sides, and after overcoming RB Leipzig in the Champions League, were outclassed by Real Madrid.
Jurgen Klopp’s side have shown a vulnerability when teams are prepared to have a go at them this season and everything we have seen from Leeds suggests they will adopt exactly that approach.
Liverpool are favourites for a reason but at 4/6 do they really float your boat? They’re short across the market wherever you look – goalscorers, assists, shots on target – with no value anywhere.
That value lies exclusively with the hosts, who are unbeaten in four, winning three straight, and enjoying the freedom that comes with knowing they have long been comfortably safe.
I wouldn’t put you off the Leeds win at 4/1 with SBK but the real value here is in the goalscoring markets, primarily with two men who have hit the target several times already this season.
Sporting Index offer a frankly ridiculous 9/1 on JACK HARRISON TO SCORE ANYTIME. He's a third of that price at 3/1 with some firms.
The midfielder missed the win over his parent club City due to the terms of his loan agreement but has been a virtual ever-present this season and should return to the starting line-up.
Harrison has netted seven times this season, including his last game against Sheffield United as well as in the reverse fixture to this at Anfield and I reckon this encounter could be similarly end-to-end.
The second standout price arrives in the form of STUART DALLAS TO SCORE FIRST at 25/1 with Bet365. The Northern Ireland midfielder showed his penchant for a goal with two in the win at the Etihad.
He’s been deployed in a more attacking role by Bielsa in recent weeks and is Leeds’ joint second highest scorer on seven, alongside Harrison, making 25s look gigantic.
We can take that price at each-way terms, at a third of the odds, with Bet365’s 1-98 place offer which means we get just over 8/1 on Dallas scoring at any time.
Leeds v Liverpool score prediction and best bets
- Jack Harrison to score anytime at 9/1 (Sporting Index)
- Stuart Dallas to score first at 25/1 (Bet 365) (1/3 odds 1-98 places)
Score prediction: Leeds 2-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Posted at 2200 GMT on 16/04/21
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