Nick Hext thinks Watford's new approach and Chelsea's reduced options makes no goalscorer the bet for Monday Night Football's Premier League game.
Monday Night Football recommended bets
1pt no goalscorer in Watford v Chelsea at 23/2
0.5pts under 1.5 goals in Watford v Chelsea at 3/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Watford v Chelsea (2000 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event)
Chelsea need to bounce back from a surprise 3-0 defeat at home to Bournemouth but I'm expecting Watford to make it a tricky evening's work for the Blues at Vicarage Road.
The Hornets drew 0-0 at Stoke in Javi Gracia's first Premier League match in charge on Wednesday night as a new tactical approach helped secure a point.
Gracia explained after the match that he wants a 4-3-3 formation when Watford are defending but to switch to 3-5-2 when going forward, Gerard Deulofeu and Jose Holebas going wide as the approach alters.
This is a change from the 4-2-3-1 formation used by the Hornets during previous manager Marco Silva's tenure and it had an immediate effect as a 12-game wait for a clean sheet in the league came to an end.
Richarlison, impressive since arriving at Vicarage Road in the summer, plays a more central role in the line-up and star player Abdoulaye Doucoure also gets more freedom to make an impact.
As such, 5/1 for Watford to beat Chelsea is fairly appealing but I think Gracia's focus on strengthening the Hornets' backline make no goalscorer the best bet.
Chelsea are again without Alvaro Morata because of a back injury and the most that can be expected from new signing Olivier Giroud is an appearance from off the bench.
Antonio Conte has seen his options reduced in recent weeks, as much as you can with the number of players under contract with the Blues, and they were well beaten by Bournemouth.
That is the fourth time in eight matches that Chelsea have failed to find the back of the net and the Blues have only won one of their previous five matches on the road.
Watford's new approach kept Stoke quiet last time out and Conte will have to quickly devise a new plan if Chelsea are to enjoy a successful trip to Hertfordshire.
I'm going to take a chance on the Hornets being part of a second goalless encounter on the spin but also take a small saver on under 1.5 goals that is appealing enough at 3/1.
Prediction: Watford 0-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet's odds: 11/1 with Sky Bet)
Posted at 1740 GMT on 02/02/18.
