Wednesday's action in the DFB-Pokal sees Borussia Mönchengladbach take on Bayern Munich and Tom Carnduff picks out three best bets to back.
Football betting tips: DFB-Pokal
1pt Joe Scally to score anytime at 20/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Jonas Hofmann to score from outside the area at 50/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Jonas Hofmann and Joshua Kimmich both to score at 55.4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Bayern Munich are starting to dominate as expected. They've had a slip-up against Eintracht Frankfurt but apart from that it's been a number of comfortable victories. It leaves them top of the Bundesliga table after nine games.
All eyes now turn to cup action with the DFB-Pokal in focus. Borussia Mönchengladbach were beaten last time out but their performances have been positive - they just haven't had the results to match.
These two opened the campaign with a 1-1 draw in a game that should have seen more goals. The hosts posted an xG of 2.02 while Bayern had 3.13 - it's no surprise that Over 3.5 Goals is an odds-on price here.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: Premier Sports 1
Borussia M'gladbach 13/2 | Draw 4/1 | Bayern Munich 4/11
Mönchengladbach's surprise defeat to Hertha Berlin leaves them in the bottom-half of the table but they can draw some confidence from their attacking performance in their previous meeting with Bayern. They should have had scored more than one based on the xG metric but that has been the story of their campaign so far.
Last weekend was only the second time this season their xG tally has been below 1.0, with their attacking displays evident in the fact that they have seen over 1.5 xG in six of their nine outings - the win over Dortmund had 1.49.
Goals are on the cards and I'm willing to keep faith in a player who has delivered when it comes to being a goalscorer already. While his anytime odds are decent enough, I'm intrigued by the 50/1 play on JONAS HOFMANN TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA.
The attacking midfielder has established himself as one of Mönchengladbach's key threats this season with three goals from an xG tally of 2.27. The fact that his xA figure is also 2.23 yet no assist has come lines up with the team's misfortunes in front of goal.
So why outside the area? Well, I wouldn't put anyone off backing the 13/2 for a goal anytime at all because those odds are more than generous considering his usual pricing. However, the statistics highlight why 50s doesn't necessarily add up for this bet.
This season, 45% of Hofmann's shots have been from outside the area - 38% of his shots on target have also come from distance. He has registered one shot on target from outside the area in three of his last four games.
This bet is helped by his ability to take free-kicks but he has demonstrated a threat from open play too. It's not like he hasn't done this already either - one of his three on his tally was struck from outside the area.
At a best price of over 55/1 using the Bet Builder on Betfair or Paddy Power, we're also having a small stakes play on HOFMANN AND JOSHUA KIMMICH BOTH TO SCORE in a game expected to be full of goals.
The reasons for Hofmann are explained above but Kimmich has been getting further forward during the opening part of the season. The midfielder is averaging 1.04 shots per 95 minutes and a decent overall xG figure of 1.47. That works out at 0.17 per 95 - almost double his 2020/21 tally.
It's extended to the Champions League too with four shots from three outings. Kimmich is already on half of last season's goal total in nearly a third of the games - he continues to represent value at this point.
The final play in this one is the shortest of the three prices but still remains a very good 20/1. That is taking JOE SCALLY TO SCORE ANYTIME. The Mönchengladbach man is averaging a shot a game this season.
The attacking numbers don't seem to be affected by whether they choose to play with three centre-backs or a flat back-four. He has shown he is comfortable on either wing and, at just 18, we can expect to hear more about him in transfer windows to come.
He suffered as part of an all-round poor performance in the capital on Saturday but he had posted at least one shot in seven successive games prior to that. We do have limited data to go at although he did get one in similar roles for Mönchengladbach's second team further down the divisions last season.
With Bayern - as expected - a short price for victory, the better value can be found in backing HOFMANN, KIMMICH and SCALLY to be among the goals.
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Bayern Munich best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Joe Scally to score anytime at 20/1 (bet365)
- 0.5pts Jonas Hofmann to score from outside the area at 50/1 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts Jonas Hofmann and Joshua Kimmich both to score at 55.4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-3 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1115 BST (26/10/21)
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