Mark O'Haire guest previews for Monday Night Football, and he is backing West Ham to keep their European push alive by winning at Wolves, as one of two best bets.
Football betting tips: Wolves v West Ham
1pt West Ham to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jesse Lingard 3+ Total Shots at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
West Ham and David Moyes have rightly been lauded for the obvious and outstanding strides made by the Hammers over the last nine months. For large swathes of 2019/20, the capital club were struggling for Premier League survival, accumulating a measly tally of 15 points from 24 games, and hurtling towards a return to the Championship.
However, since July 2020, a remarkable turnaround has seen the Irons collect 61 points from 36 matches at a rate of 1.69 points per-game. The first part of that renaissance saw West Ham move clear of relegation trouble, and the second stanza has propelled Moyes’ boys into serious contention for European qualification of one type or another.
The transformation is borne out in the pre-match betting markets coming into Monday night’s clash with Wolves. When the duo last crossed swords at Molineux in December 2019, the Old Gold were rated firm 3/4 favourites with the Hammers 9/2 outsiders. This time around, the Irons arrive in the Black Country as 8/5 jollies, unthinkable 12 months ago.
There is a lot to like about West Ham, but from a punter’s perspective, the visitors’ ability to accrue points against non-Big Six clubs has to be highlighted. Remarkably, the Hammers have only been beaten once this term by a side outside of the Big Six and that came way back on the opening weekend of the new campaign against Newcastle.
Indeed, Moyes’ men have posted an eye-opening W13-D4-L0 record in their past 17 Premier League fixtures with non-Big Six opposition, whilst their return of scoring in all bar five of their overall 29 league outings is a scoring rate that’s only bettered by runaway league leaders Manchester City. Two very encouraging trends before taking on Wolves.
This is a Wolves side that’s appeared forlorn since their exhausting efforts last season, and even more so without the services of Raul Jimenez. There’s been a degree of lethargy about the Old Gold and it could be argued that Nuno Espirito Santo’s troops are already writing this campaign off. After all, we’re getting into ‘on the beach’ territory…
Wanderers can be awkward opponents but the raw facts are, the hosts have fired blanks in 10 of 29 matches, notched multiple goals on only eight occasions and scored twice or more in only three of 16 match-ups with top-half teams this term. Wolves have returned W3-D4-L9 in that same sample against the league’s elite and therefore look worth opposing again.
Over the past 16 Premier League games, there’s a 10-point difference between the pair in terms of Expected Points (xP) earned, whilst Wolves’ Expected Goals (xG) output during that period is ranked almost on the same level as beleaguered Sheffield United, adding further credence to the suggestion high-flying West Ham are the side to support here.
However, with the draw a potential runner, I’m instead going to bolster the odds on offer for an away success by ignoring the straight Match Odds and take up the appetising 9/4 on WEST HAM TO WIN 1,0, 2-0 OR 2-1. Nine of the Hammers’ 14 league triumphs this term have been covered by one of those three correct scores.
Elsewhere, JESSE LINGARD'S rejuvenation continued with a welcome recall to the England senior set-up during the international break. The Manchester United loanee has made a significant impact on West Ham’s final-third ability with the confident forward keen to try his luck at goal whenever the opportunity presents.
Lingard’s attempted 21 shots across his seven league appearances for West Ham, firing at least two shots at goal in five of those fixtures. In four of those matches, the 28-year-old has had at least three efforts and a repeat looks overpriced at 2/1.
Wolves v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- West Ham to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 9/4
- Jesse Lingard 3+ Total Shots at 2/1
Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (03/04/21)
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