Burnley host West Ham in the second MNF game, and Liam Kelly has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Burnley v West Ham
1pt Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
West Ham travel to Burnley in a bid to reinvigorate their Champions League qualification push, dropping to sixth place after defeats to Newcastle and Chelsea.
Those losses highlighted a problem that has plagued the Hammers in recent weeks — a tendency to concede goals.
Injuries have undoubtedly been a factor in the defensive downturn of David Moyes' side, but allowing 11 goals from 10.37 expected goals against (xGA) across the last five games is a worrying trait for a team challenging for a top-four spot.
Fortunately, West Ham's attack has stepped up to keep them in the hunt, scoring 11 goals in the same span to net them seven points.
The Hammers failed to find the back of the net last time out, but that is hardly a surprise given Chelsea's incredible defensive record under Thomas Tuchel.
Burnley safe again
Burnley all-but guaranteed their 2021/22 Premier League place with an outstanding 4-0 win at Wolves last weekend, inspired by a Chris Wood hat-trick.
That win continued what has been a curious pattern in matches involving the Clarets in recent times. Goals.
Sean Dyche's side aren't exactly known for participating in games with chances at both ends, but that has been the case for a prolonged period now.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Burnley have averaged 1.46 xGF and 1.96 xGA per game over the course of their last eight league games, making BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE & OVER 2.5 GOALS real value at odds-against.
The home side will enter the game full of verve, while West Ham need to win to keep up the pressure on the top four. As a result, we could be in for a very entertaining affair.
Burnley v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Score prediction: Burnley 2-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1630 BST (30/04/21)
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