Liam Kelly previews the second of the Monday Night Football matches, expecting another solid Brighton performance against Everton.
Everton travel to Brighton looking to end a dismal run of form, dropping out of the European places after gaining one point in their last three Premier League games.
Carlo Ancelotti's side squandered a barrage of chances before conceding a late equaliser in the 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace last time out, a trait that Brighton know an awful lot about.
However, Brighton have moved six points clear of the relegation zone with improved results in recent weeks, beating Southampton and Newcastle before a spirited performance in a 2-1 loss against Manchester United.
Kick-off time: 20:15 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
The topic has been covered extensively across the last couple of months, but Brighton's underlying numbers are incredible, making their league position of 16th more baffling by the week.
Last Sunday's visit Old Trafford is a prime example of their struggles, impressing greatly against United before succumbing to defeat.
A significant amount of Brighton's underperformance has come here at the Amex Stadium, gaining only 13 points despite dominating the majority of their 15 matches at home.
Graham Potter's side have scored just 16 goals from chances equating to 28.7 expected goals against (xGA) per game, highlighting the extent of their finishing woes.
What is Expected Goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Instead, it's wise to focus at the other end of the pitch, where Brighton have excelled, to search for a value bet.
The Seagulls have allowed the least amount of expected goals against at home of any team in the Premier League this season, conceding an average of 0.82 xGA per game, which makes BRIGHTON TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET a solid proposition at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
Despite sporting the requisite talent in attacking areas to trouble any team, Everton aren't exactly threatening teams as much as they should, ranking as a bottom-half side in both goals scored and expected goals for (xGF) this season.
The 6/5 about a Brighton win looks a little short considering the trust issues involved with their ability in front of goal, so sticking with another good defensive display from the home team looks a value play.
Brighton v Everton best bets and score prediction
- Brighton to keep a clean sheet at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brighton 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1700 BST (09/04/21)
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