The Premier League weekend rounds off as Arsenal take on out-of-form Newcastle in the Monday Night Football. Joe Rindl has a preview and best bets.
All the stats point to a home win, Arsenal have tasted victory in 14 of their last 15 Premier League matches against Newcastle, and knocked their opponents out of the FA Cup on January 9.
A victory would also extend the Gunners' unbeaten run to six games, and I really can’t see Newcastle standing in their way.
The Magpies don’t score many. Outside of the bottom three, only Burnley have found the net fewer times.
And those stats look even worse when you remember they had quite a fruitful September. Steve Bruce’s side scored 12 in all competitions that month and the new season looked full of promise.
But performances have slumped, results have stalled and now Newcastle have mustered just one goal in four minutes shy of 10 hours worth of football.
They’re record against the ‘Big Six’ doesn’t flatter them either, last getting on the scoresheet in a 4-1 defeat to Manchester United in November.
Recently they’ve lost 2-0 to Manchester City and Chelsea either side of a 0-0 draw with Liverpool.
Factor in Arsenal not conceding in their last four games - including an extra-time FA Cup win in this very same match-up - and the Gunners to keep a clean sheet at evens becomes very good value for money and something I can really get behind.
Arsenal’s lack of creativity was plain to see in their snoozefest goalless draw against Crystal Palace on Thursday, but I’d certainly back them to find the net at least once at the Emirates against Bruce's struggling team.
Excluding their freak 0-0 with Liverpool, Newcastle’s last clean sheet came in November.
On their leaky run they’ve let in goals against Sky Bet Championship Brentford, and in conceding to goalshy Sheffield United in midweek became the first top-flight side to lose to the Blades in six months.
Arsenal to win to nil at 11/8 with Betfair seems incredibly appealing. Even more so when you think that bet has paid out twice in their last four games, with agonising recent failures caused by a late Chelsea consolation goal and Newcastle's stoicism in forcing extra time before wilting to a 2-0 defeat.
Something else I like to look for, if there is value to be had, in a game of few goals is a first goalscorer punt.
Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are the obvious picks at 3/1 and 4/1 respectively, but it's teenager Bukayo Saka at 8/1 with SBK who really stands out.
The left-back turned left-wing-back turned winger turned central midfielder has been the Gunners' best and most reliable player for a good year now.
He has scored in two of his last five matches and regularly goes for goal - no Arsenal player has had more shots per game than this season than the 19-year-old England international.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 GMT (15/01/21)
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