Are Wycombe heading to a second League One play-off final in three seasons or can MK Dons overturn a 2-0 first-leg deficit? Michael Beardmore has the second leg preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: League One play-offs
1.5pt MK Dons to win at 23/20 (General)
0.5pt MK Dons to win 2-0 at 10/1 (General)
0.5pt MK Dons to win 3-1 at 16/1 (General)
Wycombe Wanderers have a two-goal advantage to protect when they make the short trip to Milton Keynes for the second leg of their Sky Bet League One play-off semi-final on Sunday evening.
Headers from Ryan Tafazolli and Sam Vokes put the Chairboys firmly in the driving seat at Adams Park on Thursday night with Josh McEachran’s red card in between hardly helping the Dons’ cause.
All is not lost for the hosts, however – over the past two seasons, five teams have overturned first-leg deficits in Football League play-offs to progress and two of those, like MK, trailed by two goals.
The margin for error is small, of course, but the Dons’ home defensive process – their Expected Goals Against figure of 0.73 being the division’s second lowest this season – gives them hope.
Kick-off time: 18:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
MK Dons 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Wycombe 11/5
Prior to Thursday, the Dons had beaten Wycombe on three separate occasions this season – the league double plus an EFL Trophy victory – although that helped them not a jot in the first leg of the often-unforgiving "lottery" that is the play-offs.
Nonetheless, MK have been the superior team of the two this season, not only in that head-to-head but in finishing three places and six points higher in the final standings, just a single point off automatic promotion.
At home, this should count for something but just as importantly, if not more, is what we can glean from recent history when it comes to play-off teams holding first-leg leads.
Only twice in 36 Football League play-off semi-final ties across the past six seasons has any team won both legs – Barnsley 3-0 and 3-1 against Walsall in 2016 and a pair of 1-0 Shrewsbury wins over Charlton in 2018.
Of those 36 ties, 10 have finished level after the first leg, while on 26 occasions one side has been ahead – the second-leg record of the side ahead after the first leg reads W2 D12 L12. That's the trailing team winning almost 50% of such second legs.
It’s the basic ‘protect what we have’ tenet in its purest form. And it’s also difficult to change tack if and when the trailing team do score – particularly when the original lead is two goals or more as there is still an advantage to hang on to.
All of the above makes MK DONS TO WIN (the second leg) an attractive prospect at 23/20 – it seems the bookies have overreacted to the first-leg loss by having the hosts odds-against just to win in 90 minutes, regardless of overall progression.
If you’re not a short odds backer, then I would instead recommend split stakes on two scorelines that would see the game go to extra time.
The defensive approach adopted by the team leading and have-a-go attitude of the trailing team have contributed to six out of 18 play-off semi-finals across the three divisions going to extra time in the past three seasons.
Four of the Dons’ past seven home games have been two-goal wins so take a flutter on MK DONS TO WIN 2-0 and MK DONS TO WIN 3-1 at 10/1 and 16/1 respectively. It's 75/1 on 4-2 with Sporting Index if you fancy a thriller.
MK Dons v Wycombe score prediction and best bets
- MK Dons to win at 23/20 (General)
- MK Dons to win 2-0 at 10/1 (General)
- MK Dons to win 3-1 at 16/1 (General)
Score prediction: MK Dons 2-0 Wycombe (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1900 BST (06/05/22)
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