Friday night football comes from the Sky Bet Championship where Derby welcome Watford. Tom Carnduff is looking at cards.
Recommended bets
1pt Watford to receive the most booking points at 15/8
1pt Nathaniel Chalobah to be shown a card at 6/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Derby v Watford
- 19:45 BST on Sky Sports Football
- Match odds: Home 23/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/20
Derby have failed to hit the heights since their appearance in the play-off final at the end of the 2018/19 season and pressure is mounting on Phillip Cocu after a poor start to the new campaign.
Wayne Rooney, the Rams' big earner, has been linked with the managerial job but figures at Pride Park are backing Cocu to turn things around following some poor results in recent weeks.
They welcome a Watford side who have adjusted well to life back in the Sky Bet Championship. They may have been beaten by Reading last time out but have seven points on the board after four games. Derby's only points came in victory over Norwich during the last international break.
Watford's 23/20 price on success here looks good value but the prices available in the bookings market are intriguing. The Hornets sit second in the average fouls per game charts with 16.5. Only Rotherham (16.8) have seen more in the early stages of the season.
Derby may have seen more yellow cards but they sit way down in 18th when it comes to fouls. Their average is a much lower 12 per game while they see 15.3 tackles per 90 minutes; Watford are on 18.3.
Geoff Eltringham's appointment as referee could bring cards as he has shown six across the two Championship games he has officiated this season. What is interesting is that the four teams in those games aren't high on the fouls chart. Swansea (24th), Norwich (20th) and Wycombe (12th) all sit in the bottom-half of the 'fouls table'.
So with Watford bringing a high number of fouls that should trigger more cards and it's worth backing them as the outsiders at 15/8 to receive more booking points than Derby on Friday night - even if it is a game where they are ultimately successful.
A player who could be shown a card is Nathaniel Chalobah. The midfielder has two on his tally already with one coming in the last game against Reading. It's hardly a surprise when he sits on 2.5 fouls and 3.3 tackles per game. At a price of 6/1, the odds are too good to turn down on another card here.
Watford may have a couple of injury issues but their squad is more than good enough to seriously challenge for promotion this season. They can continue on the right path with victory over Derby on Friday.
Score prediction: Derby 0-2 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Watford to receive the most booking points at 15/8
Odds correct at 1505 BST (15/10/20)
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