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Mark O'Haire's football tips, best bets and nap for September 28 and 29
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Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
3pts Man City to beat Newcastle and Under 5.5 Goals (12:30) at 4/5 (Betway)
2.5pts Both Teams To Score ‘No’ in Gillingham vs Barrow (15:00) at 9/10 (Betfair)
2.5pts Barcelona to beat Osasuna and Over 2.5 Goals (20:00) at evens (Sky Bet)
Newcastle vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 4/1 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/7
Newcastle’s luck ran out last week at Fulham. The Magpies enjoyed a reasonable amount of fortunate when collecting 10 points against Southampton, Bournemouth, Wolves and Tottenham, but Eddie Howe’s side fell to a deserved defeat at Craven Cottage in a performance the Toon boss described as the worst of their season so far.
With Howe still seemingly working out his best defence, key individuals elsewhere have failed to fire, leading the team to lack control and consistency. They are averaging only the 16th most shots, whilst only Brentford have allowed more after the first five matchdays, an alarming return considering Manchester City arrive at St James’ Park on Saturday.
City will be without Rodri, though they do boast a red-hot record against Newcastle and head to Tyneside following that last-gasp point against Arsenal. Pep Guardiola’s group have now scored at least twice in every game this season.
With that in mind, I’m happy to take MAN CITY TO WIN & UNDER 5.5 GOALS at 4/5 (1.80) with the selection paying out should City triumph 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, and even 3-2.
Gillingham vs Barrow
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 29/20 | Draw 2/1 | Away 17/10
The top two in Sky Bet League Two meet at Priestfield on Saturday and I’m anticipating a tight tussle between Gillingham and Barrow. Collectively, the pair have conceded just five goals across their combined 14 league fixtures thus far – that’s over 21 hours of football – impressively keeping nine clean sheets across their early season outings.
Defences could again be on top here with the two teams offering such stern rearguard action. Eight of those aforementioned 14 matches concluded with a maximum of just one goal and whilst Under 2.5 Goals is too short to support here, backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ holds plenty of appeal at 9/10 (1.90) quotes with Betfair/Paddy Power.
Barrow’s seven matches have produced a measly 1.52 Expected Goals (xG) per-game average, whilst hosts Gillingham are posting just 1.11 xG per-game of their own. Meanwhile, nine of their combined contests have seen the duo score a maximum of one goal, again highlighting the tight nature of tussles involving the pair.
Osasuna vs Barcelona
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: LaLiga TV
- Home 21/4 | Draw 18/5 | Away 4/9
Barcelona extended their exceptional start to the season in midweek, overcoming Getafe 1-0 to make it seven La Liga wins from seven. They weren’t as convincing as recent weeks, but Hansi Flick’s side restored their four-point advantage at the summit ahead of their Saturday night showdown at Osasuna.
I’ll be backing BARCELONA TO WIN & OVER 2.5 GOALS at 1/1 (2.00) with Sky Bet having seen the table-toppers destroy both Villarreal (5-1) and Girona (4-1) in their previous two away league days. However, Barca haven’t looked completely secure defensively and their midweek victory saw them keep only their second clean sheet of the campaign.
Osasuna pack plenty of punch in Pamplona – the Gorritxoak scored seven goals at their El Sadar base hosting Barca, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid and the hosts have been on the scoresheet in all four of their home fixtures thus far, suggesting Vicente Moreno’s men are well capable of contributing here, even if they ultimately fall short.
Odds correct at 0930 BST (26/09/24)
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