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Mark O'Haire's football tips, best bets and nap for October 26
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Football betting tips: Weekend best bets
3pts Napoli to win and Both Teams To Score 'No' vs Lecce (14:00) at 1/1 (Sky bet)
2.5pts Burnley to beat QPR and under 4.5 goals (15:00) at 10/11 (Betway)
2.5pts Internacional draw no bet vs Atletico MG (23:00) at 7/10 (Unibet)
Napoli vs Lecce
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 2/7 | Draw 17/4 | Away 9/1
NAPOLI can preserve their Serie A-leading status with a routine home victory over lowly Lecce on Saturday. The Partenopei have posted W6-D1-L0 since their opening day defeat with Antonio Conte’s charges conceding just one non-penalty goal in that seven-game sample – Juventus (0-0) the only side that’s managed to thwart the table-toppers.
At their Stadio Maradona, Napoli have leaked only one non-penalty goal in four fixtures and the hosts look excellent value at 1/1 (2.00) with SkyBet to win alongside BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' here. Second-from-bottom Lecce were thrashed 6-0 at home by Fiorentina in their most recent outing, a third successive reverse without scoring and have been struggling in the final-third.
Luca Gotti’s group have managed only three goals in eight encounters, having blanked already on six occasions. The Giallorossi have failed to net in all four previous away days, with our proposed play already paying-out when Lecce travelled to Inter, Milan and Udinese this term, with the guests yet to strike in six contests with top-half opposition.
Burnley vs QPR
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 8/13 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/4
Burnley are W6-D4-L1 under Scott Parker this season in the Championship as they bid to make an immediate return to the top-flight. The Clarets haven’t always convinced – overachieving according to the data – although the strength of squad and an impressive rearguard is helping the 2022/23 champions to challenge towards the top of the table.
Parker’s posse have kept five clean sheets in their last seven, shipping only two goals in the process. However, Burnley haven’t cut loose since August – their last 11 games have produced only nine goals, with four of their past six settled by a maximum of one goal. I’m therefore happy to back the Clarets TO WIN AND UNDER 4/5 GOALS at 10/11 (1.91).
Burnley have beaten all five of their opponents in the bottom-eight, whilst QPR have lost four of five matches against teams in 16th and above. Rangers are struggling in both boxes right now and the quality gap should tell at Turf Moor in a relatively low-scoring contest – only one of 43 QPR dates under Marti Cifuentes has featured five goals or more.
Atletico MG vs Internacional
- Kick-off time: 23:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 8/13 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/4
INTERNACIONAL are the form team in the Brasileirao right now. The Porto Alegre club won the city’s big derby date last weekend to move up to sixth and in prime position for Copa Libertadores qualification. Colorado have now lost just once in 15, have returned W8-D3-L1 in their most recent 12 Serie A outings, scoring twice or more in seven of their last eight.
Roger Machado’s men have suffered only six defeats all season and therefore look well worth supporting at 7/10 (1.70) quotes in the DRAW NO BET market as they head to Atletico MG on Saturday night with circumstances massively in their favour.
This league match is sandwiched between Mineiro’s mega Libertadores semi-final showdowns with River Plate. The hosts beat the Argentines 3-0 in the first leg on Tuesday and now face the return tussle in midweek – with the Galo in mid-table obscurity, MG will be resting and rotating with all emphasis and priority given to their continental cup clash.
Odds correct at 0800 BST (24/10/24)
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