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Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: A Nordic adventure
- Mark O'Haire's 24/25 Tips - Staked: 16pts | Returned: 20.16pts | P/L: +4.16pts | ROI: +26%
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Football betting tips: Weekend best bets
Sunday
2.5pts Stromsgodset +1.0 Asian Handicap vs Bodo/Glimt (16:00) at 4/5 (bet365)
Saturday
3pts GAIS to beat Kalmar (14:00) at 3/4 (Betway)
2.5pts Truro to beat Chelmsford (15:00) at 5/4 (bet365)
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt
- Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 16/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 6/10
Bodo/Glimt produced one of their worst performances of the season on Wednesday night as the Norwegian champions limped out of the Champions League following a desperately disappointing display at Red Star Belgrade. Kjetil Knutsen’s crew were unable to hold onto their first leg advantage, losing the shot count 18-5 and tumbling into the Europa League.
The Superlaget must now refocus ahead of Sunday’s showdown at mid-table Stromsgodset. Bodo boast a six-point advantage at the top of the Eliteserien, though the quick turnaround from their European no-show, coupled with Glimt’s ordinary recent domestic efforts on the road (W2-D2-L2), suggest there’s value in opposing the table-toppers this weekend.
Bodo haven’t won by a two-goal margin outside of the Arctic Circle since May and Stromsgodset should be capable of keeping this contest competitive having lost just 1-0 in the reverse match-up, as well as running high-flying Viking and Brann close. Backing STROMSGODSET +1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP requires Bodo to win by 2+ goals for our bet to lose.
GAIS vs Kalmar
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/6 | Draw 13/5 | Away 16/5
GAIS returned to the Allsvenskan after an 11-year absence this season and the newly-promoted team have made an immediate impact on the Swedish top-flight, sitting just four points off third and potential European qualification. The Mackerels have been a major menace at their Gamla Ullevi base (W7-D1-L2), scoring twice or more in all seven victories.
Exclude penalties and GAIS boast an excellent +0.49 Expected Goals (xG) per-game average in front of their own supporters and should therefore fancy their chances on Saturday when rock-bottom Kalmar arrive at Gamla Ullevi. The visitors have picked up a solitary point from their past five fixtures (W0-D1-L4), whilst also conceding multiple goals in each encounter.
Kalmar have been beaten in seven of 10 away days, leaked twice or more in seven of 10 road trips, giving up an average of 2.30 goals per-game on their travels. The strugglers have also lost the Expected Goals (xG) battle in eight of 10 games as guests, returning a rotten -0.90 xG per-game across those 10 tussles. GAIS TO WIN is priced at 3/4 here and should be backed.
Truro City vs Chelmsford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Cash has come for Truro City this week following an eye-catching week that’s seen the Cornish club record back-to-back home victories over Enfield (3-1) and Worthing (5-0). The Tinners will be looking to extend that winning streak on Saturday when winless Chelmsford (W0-D3-L2) make the gruelling six-hour journey from Essex to meet John Askey’s men.
Well-funded Truro have plundered 11 goals in their last four fixtures (W3-D1-L0) and should fancy their chances here considering Chelmsford have been beaten in successive away days, conceding two goals in each, with last season’s high-flyers still searching for their first clean sheet of the campaign. TRURO TO WIN can be backed at 5/4 with bet365.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (29/08/24)
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