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Manchester United: Why hasn't it worked for Paul Pogba?
Only Liverpool are keeping Paul Pogba off the top of the table. The assist charts, that is.
The Anfield trio of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mohamed Salah and Andrew Robertson lead the way. Then comes Pogba, who has created nine Premier League goals.
And yet more than half of those came in August. Since then, Watford right-back Kiko Femenia has more assists. Pogba has a lone league goal this season.
The most expensive player in history, as he was when Manchester United paid £89 million for him in 2016, is the joint 155th top scorer in the Premier League this season.
The numbers, like much about Pogba’s United career, lend themselves to different conclusions. He is both brilliant and undistinguished, an elite player and an ordinary one. He is likely to leave Old Trafford this summer as an enigma.
But his best is very good. This is the third season in the last five when Pogba has recorded at least nine assists. He is set for a third top-10 finish in the assist charts.
Admittedly, all three have come courtesy of excellent finishing: his nine assists have come from an expected assists (xA) of 3.63 this season, in 2018-19 he had nine assists and an xA of 4.42 and in 2017-18 he had 10 assists but an xA of just 4.07.
Pogba’s xA was actually highest in his first season back at Old Trafford, at 5.50, when he only made four goals.
Nevertheless, there are indications of Pogba’s creativity. He ranks top for assists per 95 minutes this season, at 0.70, and despite only having scored once, third for non-penalty goals and assists per 95, behind only Salah and Reece James.
Pogba’s appearance in various charts shows the range of his talents.
He has finished in the top 10 in a Premier League season for passes into the penalty area, passes into the final third, progressive passes, through balls, shots, shots on target, shot-creating actions, progressive carries, carrying distance and goals.
Many were in 2018-19, when his total of 13 goals included seven penalties, but he added nine assists: he was directly involved in a goal every 136 minutes that season, or 200 if spot kicks are omitted.
Yet, aided by that August flurry of assists, his average is actually better this season: a direct involvement in a goal every 114 minutes.
We need to talk about Bruno
But the other numbers suggest Pogba was a greater attacking force before Bruno Fernandes joined United.
He is averaging 2.32 shots per 95 minutes this season, up on the previous two campaigns. But in his first three seasons, it was 3.14, 3.18 and 2.84.
In 2018-19, his 38 shots on target were the most of any midfielder.
His xG per 95 (expected goals per 90 minutes) peaked at 0.47 in 2018-19 and if it was inflated by penalties, it has never topped 0.17 since. That meagre average only puts him 12th among footballers who have played for United this season (for various reasons Donny van de Beek, Anthony Martial and Daniel James do not currently).
Pogba's highest average of shot-creating actions per 95 minutes came in 2019-20 (4.34) but his greatest volume (141 at 4.22 per 95) came the previous year. It meant only Eden Hazard, James Maddison and Salah mustered more. Then Pogba was the constant. It was the closest he came to consistency.
But for the last three years, Pogba has been a bit-part presence: often due to injury, occasionally because of suspension, but sometimes when he has been a substitute as he has lacked an obvious role since Fernandes’ arrival. He has played 35.2, 55.5 and 43.6 percent of United’s top-flight minutes in the last three seasons.
That Fernandes racks up attacking numbers that Pogba has rarely rivalled – he ranks second only to Alexander-Arnold for shot-creating actions this season, even when he has fewer goals and assists than last year, while the World Cup winner is tied for 77th place – means the Frenchman loses their private competition.
And he can be pitted into different battles.
'The Frenchman isn’t defensively good'
If Pogba is perhaps not attacking enough to be the attacking midfielder, he definitely isn’t defensive enough to qualify as the defensive midfielder.
He loses out to Scott McTominay and Fred on numbers for off-the-ball work. They have both attempted 61 tackles in the Premier League this season, to Pogba’s 19.
They have played more minutes, but McTominay’s 379 pressures and Fred’s 486 are far ahead of Pogba’s 232. They have 40 and 41 blocks to his 14.
Nor is it a new trend. Fred posted figures more than twice as high as Pogba’s in many defensive categories (tackles, blocks, pressures) last season. The Frenchman isn’t defensively good enough to be a defensive midfielder.
At his best, his attacking numbers show he can be one of the finest creative midfielders in the league, albeit one who is let down by poor finishing (he has underperformed his xG in five of his six seasons at Old Trafford) and who never fully justified his fee.
But then Fernandes arrived to score more prolifically and fashion more chances.
Pogba is likely to leave Old Trafford with statistics that showed his ability, but others that reflected the way it was not always realised. Because he really shouldn’t be outscored by 154 other players.
