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Manchester United vs Manchester City Community Shield betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
The Community Shield is an all Manchester affair, with Premier League champions City taking on FA Cup winners United. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game.
Football betting tips: Community Shield
1pt Mason Mount 1+ shot on target at 10/3 (bet365)
1pt Kalvin Phillips to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
- *All bets are in 90 minutes
- CLICK HERE to add all selections to your Sky Bet bet slip
BuildABet @ 60/1
- Mason Mount 1+ shot on target
- Casemiro 2+ fouls committed
- Kalvin Phillips to be carded
- Marcus Rashford 1+ offside
Is the the Community Shield the official curtain raiser of the 24/25 season? Is it even an important trophy?
Well, the answer to both questions depends on who you ask. For me, the answers are 'Yes' and 'No'. Perhaps Manchester City's answers are 'No' and 'No'.
This will be the fourth straight season in which Pep's side have taken part of the Community Shield, and they have lost the last three against Leicester, Liverpool and Arsenal.
The 2024 edition is an all Manchester affair after United beat City in the FA Cup final, but neither team will be at full strength here and while that potentially makes picking a winner tricky, it does open up some potentially interesting betting angles.
What are the best bets?
For context on previous finals, six of the last eight have seen both teams score, seven of the last nine at Wembley have gone under 2.5 goals, seven of the last 10 have gone under 3.5 cards and four of the last seven have been settled on penalties.
Of those stats, the unders initially appealed at 7/4, but with how weak United could be at the back and City in midfield, swerving that could be wise.
The team news (more detail below) for this game is a right mess. No one has any clue who is too injured to take part, or if those returning late from major tournament duty will feature at all.
Bruno Fernandes is questionable to start for United having not played any part in pre-season, which could present an intriguing betting opportunity around MASON MOUNT, the man likely to fill the Bruno shaped hole should the Portuguese star not play.
He is priced at 10/3 for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET and that looks a big price to me.
Mount's 23/24 campaign was a frustrating one, with injuries meaning he could never get a run in the team. After a good pre-season with some good performances, hopefully he can kick on this term and recapture some of his Chelsea form.
He has been eye-catching in pre-season, firing four shots on target across limited minutes in four friendlies, which includes competitive-enough games against Liverpool and Arsenal. The last time he was fully fit, way back in 21/22, he averaged 1.1 shots on target per 90, so if he is in a good place physically it wouldn't be a surprise to see him test City's keeper on Saturday.
The other reason I really like this bet is that City's midfield looks set to be weak, with Rodri unlikely to start, meaning Kalvin Phillips could pair Mateo Kovacic. This should present Mount with more space than usual, so hopefully he can take advantage.
Speaking of KALVIN PHILLIPS, his price TO BE CARDED leapt off the page at 4/1.
For whatever reason, Phillips has really struggled since making the move to City, and I expect that to continue on Saturday where - if he starts - he will be up against some nippy, tricky and lightening quick players.
Mount, Jadon Sancho and Amad Diallo are all excellent foul drawers, meaning the former Leeds man will have his hands full trying to fill the gaping hole left by the best midfielder in the world, Rodri.
Last season while on loan at West Ham, Phillips picked up four cards in just eight appearances and 287 minutes... that's a card per 90 average of 1.25. In his final four seasons at Leeds, he racked up 41 cards in 151 appearances, highlighting his propensity to have his name taken.
Both of these bet are somewhat speculative around team news, so while some bookies will void the bet if the players aren't in the starting line-up, a cash-out is advised if possible for the bookies that don't.
Team news
After no Euros action, Erling Haaland is fresh and raring to go, and after Julian Alvarez's sale to Atletico Madrid, the Norwegian is highly likely to start here.
Phil Foden, Rodri, John Stones and Kyle Walker are all expected to miss out, from the start at least, after returning late to pre-season following the Euro 2024 final.
Ederson is available but Pep may choose to start Stefan Ortega, City's cup goalkeeper, while Rico Lewis, Kalvin Philliips and Jack Grealish could all start.
Manchester United's big summer signing Leny Yoro picked up an injury in pre-season, as did Rasmus Hojlund, so both will miss out, but new number 11 Joshua Zirkzee could start, along with last season's unwanted man Jadon Sancho.
Erik ten Hag has major defensive worries though, with Harry Maguire, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Will Fish and Victor Lindelof all expected to miss out with injuries, and Jonny Evans a doubt. Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo could feature despite their pre-season only commencing on Monday, while Bruno Fernandes is questionable to start after returning late from pre-season.
Predicted line-ups
Man Utd: Onana; Dalot, Martinez, Shaw, Amass; Casemiro, Eriksen; Sancho, Mount, Diallo; Rashford
Man City: Ortega; Lewis, Dias, Akanji, Gvardiol; Phillips, Kovacic; Bobb, Bernardo Silva, Grealish; Haaland
Match facts
- This will be the third time Manchester City and Manchester United have met in the Community Shield – Manchester United have won both previous matchups, 1-0 in 1956 and 3-2 in 2011.
- Of the last eight occasions the Community Shield has been between the previous season’s champions and FA Cup winners, the team to have won the FA Cup has won the shield seven times, with the exception being Manchester City’s 2-0 win over Chelsea in 2018.
- This is the fourth consecutive year Manchester City are appearing in the Community Shield, though they failed to win the trophy in any of 2021, 2022 or 2023. Only Manchester United (1998 to 2001) have failed to win the Community Shield in four consecutive years.
- Including shared victories, Manchester United have won the Community Shield more often than any other side (21). The Red Devils have won the trophy in their last four appearances, with this their first since a 2-1 win over Leicester in 2016 in José Mourinho’s first match in charge.
- Man City striker Erling Haaland has been involved in nine goals in six appearances against Manchester United, scoring six and assisting three. However, he’s yet to register a single goal involvement in four appearances at Wembley Stadium.
- Man City’s Phil Foden has been involved in seven goals in his last six appearances against Manchester United, scoring six and assisting one. Only against Brighton (8) has he scored more club career goals than he has against the Red Devils (6).
- 19-year-old Kobbie Mainoo scored for Man Utd in their FA Cup final victory against Man City in May. The only player to score in the FA Cup final and subsequent Community Shield match as a teenager is Nicolas Anelka for Arsenal in 1998.
- Marcus Rashford has scored six goals against Manchester City in all competitions – only against Leicester City (8) and Liverpool (7) has he scored more in his Manchester United career
Odds correct at 1530 BST (08/08/24)
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