Manchester United have had issues at home this season, Jake Osgathorpe thinks West Ham are set to capitalise on Sunday as he picks out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Manchester United v West Ham
2pt West Ham or Draw at evens (William Hill)
0.5pt Craig Dawson to score anytime at 16/1 (bet365)
Manchester United were nothing short of excellent last weekend against Manchester City, winning at the Etihad to extend their unbeaten away run in the Premier League to 22 games while ending the 21-game winning run of their rivals.
That unbeaten sequence clearly shows how good Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side have been away from home, but unfortunately for them, this difficult fixture comes at Old Trafford.
Kick-off time: 19:15 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Home 4/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 10/3
Are Manchester United poor at home?
They have won just six of 13 home games in the Premier League this season, losing four, and while their expected goal difference (xGD) of +8.4 at Old Trafford ranks them fifth among home teams, it is worth remembering that over half that tally came in the freak 9-0 win over Southampton.
Midweek saw them draw 1-1 with AC Milan in the Europa League, meaning that they have won just two of five home games in European matches too.
Playing at home is a problem for United.
The likes of Crystal Palace and Sheffield United have won at Old Trafford, and if you exclude the high-margin win over a Southampton side who were reduced to 10-men after two minutes, United have averaged a mediocre 1.62 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.30 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Can West Ham qualify for Europe?
Heading into the weekend, West Ham sit fifth in the Premier League table, just two points behind Chelsea with a game in hand. It has been some season for the Hammers.
Ex-Manchester United manager David Moyes has masterminded this incredible season, and the results have been fully deserved according to expected goals, with his side occupying a top six berth in Infogol’s xG table.
They come into this game having won four of their last six, with their only defeat in that time an undeserved one against Manchester City, where the Hammers created the better chances (xG: MCI 0.76 – 1.73 WHU).
In fact, only Manchester City (+13.2 xGD), Liverpool (+9.5) and Chelsea (+8.2) have a better xG process when playing away from home than West Ham this season. That’s incredible.
Infogol has the Hammers currently forecasted to finish in their current fifth spot, which would bring European football, but getting results in these kinds of games would increase their chances of going one better and earning Champions League football.
Given Manchester United’s issues at home, in terms of results and underlying process, and West Ham’s strong away numbers, I think David Moyes’ side can do what AC Milan did in midweek and get a result. I’ll be backing WEST HAM OR DRAW in this one.
Throw in the fact that United need a result in their upcoming second leg in Italy, and the fact that West Ham racked up the chances in the reverse game (xG: WHU 2.67 – 1.56 MUN), surrendering a 1-0 half-time lead to lose 3-1, and the even money available looks excellent value.
Set-piece prowess provides angle
You probably know by now that West Ham are really good at set-pieces. In fact, 15 of their 42 goals (36%) this season have come from dead-ball situations, and their xG total from such scenarios (11.4) is bettered only by Chelsea (12.0).
It works out that 28% of their xGF total this season has come from set-plays.
In the other corner, we have a team in Manchester United who have shown vulnerabilities when defending the dead ball, as seen most recently in midweek when conceding a late equaliser from a corner against Milan.
They have conceded 10 goals from corners and set-pieces this season, which accounts for 31% of their goals conceded, with nearly 25% of their xGA this season coming from such situations.
It seems very strength versus weakness, and I think the best way to capitalise could be a big-priced goalscorer angle.
Michael Beardmore had success on Monday when backing Craig Dawson each-way in the first goalscorer market, and I am picking the same player here.
His xG/95 numbers since joining the Hammers have been extraordinary for a central defender, with Dawson averaging 0.22.
For perspective, that’s the same xG/95 as the likes of Jack Grealish and Gylfi Sigurdsson, and better than Mason Greenwood (0.19), Mason Mount (0.18) and James Maddison (0.17).
He is getting in great scoring positions regularly, and the 16/1 about CRAIG DAWSON TO SCORE ANYTIME in this game is frankly insulting. Especially given that West Ham will cause Manchester United problems from set-pieces.
Manchester United v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 2pt West Ham or Draw at evens (William Hill)
- 0.5pt Craig Dawson to score anytime at 16/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (12/03/21)
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