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Manchester United v Newcastle tips: Carabao Cup final best bets and preview
Manchester United take on Newcastle in the Carabao Cup final. Tom Carnduff picks out his three best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Carabao Cup final
2pts Kieran Trippier to have 2+ fouls at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Bruno Fernandes to be shown a card at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Diogo Dalot to score anytime at 22/1 (Unibet)
We're guaranteed to return profit from the Carabao Cup having backed Manchester United as a 16/1 each-way selection in our outright preview.
Erik ten Hag's men find themselves as the odds-on favourites to lift the first proper domestic trophy of the season, and confidence in their chances would only have grown given form in recent weeks.
Add in a victory over Barcelona to already high confidence levels and they should have enough to lift the trophy on Sunday, although Newcastle will prove to be an incredibly tough test.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Manchester United 23/20 | Draw 23/10 | Newcastle 12/5
Even with that pick in the outright preview, I'm going to avoid taking the easy route in simply backing Newcastle to lift the trophy - although 8/1 is guaranteed given the each-way terms.
There's also the fact that - while Newcastle deserve huge credit for their rise in the table under Eddie Howe - they haven't looked at their best in recent weeks. That, coupled with the occasion, could be problematic.
There may well be some nerves against a flying Manchester United attack too, which is why taking 2/1 on KIERAN TRIPPIER 2+ FOULS looks an interesting play with Sky Bet.
Trippier has had at least one foul in nine of his last ten league games. The one that fell short of that was Liverpool last time out, which is hardly a surprise when we consider that the contest was decided fairly early on.
He's set for a busy afternoon down that side of the pitch, especially when we consider the various options available to ten Hag. It could be Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, Bruno Fernandes or Antony who come up against him.
Cup finals are also nervy affairs, and little fouls should be common as both teams adapt a somewhat 'safety first' approach in certain situations.
There were 24 fouls in the 2022 final, 22 in 2021, and 20 the year before that. Add all that to the fact that Trippier had two when these sides last met and the 2/1 looks somewhat generous on a repeat in the capital.
Staying (somewhat) on the topic of fouls, and it's a slight surprise to see a price of 4/1 available on BRUNO FERNANDES TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
Fernandes' eye-catching form in attack has led to direct goal involvement, but his efforts out of possession have largely contributed to why he is such a key player in this team.
Five of his last six Premier League games have returned at least two successful tackles. Those that weren't timed as well led to five yellows on his tally too - with one last time out against Barcelona.
That was for booting the ball at Frenkie de Jong on the ground - and there's no doubt he'd want a prison sentence if it was the other way round - but that is another side that makes him an interesting name in this market.
He'll be at the referee throughout the 90 minutes and will be heavily involved in the 'competitive' elements of the contest. All the ingredients are there, with an official in David Coote who averages 3.82 cards per game.
And finally, a long shot bet I'm willing to keep faith in, despite heartbreak last week, is DIOGO DALOT TO SCORE ANYTIME. A best price of 22/1 is available, with 20/1 elsewhere.
He had a golden opportunity to find the net in the win over Leicester, but opted to go with his other foot despite having what appeared to be a relative tap-in from close range.
Why? pic.twitter.com/wD2S9g3fnJ
— Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22) February 19, 2023
The right-back has posted a total of 18 shots for 2.2 xG across the Premier League and Europa League this season - with a goal coming in Europe's second club competition.
He is seeing opportunities and the full-backs are allowed the freedom to drive forward in this United set-up. As outlined by the underlying numbers, Dalot should have scored a few more.
That can come here given recent chances, and odds of 22/1 imply that he's a player limited in terms of attacking chances. That isn't the case.
Ultimately, a Manchester United win is what we're after for big profit in our outright preview, but we'll take DALOT, FERNANDES and TRIPPIER to be involved in the final.
Manchester United v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Kieran Trippier to have 2+ fouls at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Bruno Fernandes to be shown a card at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 0.5pt Diogo Dalot to score anytime at 22/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (24/02/23)
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