Manchester United host Fulham in the FA Cup, and fresh off a +9.9pt big match preview on Thursday, Jake Osgathorpe provides the best bets ranging from 27/25 to 14/1.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Marcus Rashford to score anytime at 27/25 (Unibet)
1pt Manchester United to win and Both Teams to Score at 21/10 (bet365)
0.5pt Joao Palhinha and Lisandro Martinez to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
Manchester United have had a whirlwind schedule since the World Cup, with this game being their 25th match in 96 days - an average of a game every 3.8 days.
They will be looking forward to the international break to get some respite from the hectic cramming of fixtures, but before that they have the small matter of an FA Cup quarter-final against Fulham.
Given their Carabao Cup win, and the strength of teams selected in that competition, we know United will go as full-strength as possible here despite playing away in the Europa League on Thursday.
Fulham will be all-out here too, so we can expect an entertaining game at Old Trafford.
This issue for Marco Silva's side though is that they don't travel well. In the Premier League, they have averaged 1.30 xGF and a whopping 2.00 xGA per game, which tells us that they are extremely vulnerable but do create.
Given Manchester United's home displays that have seen them average 1.97 xGF and 1.16 xGA per game, I think it's worth chancing MANCHESTER UNITED TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 21/10.
Manchester United have won 11 of 15 home games in the Premier League and FA Cup, and this bet has landed in eight of those games, highlighting United's propensity to concede in victories.
Fulham have hit the back of the net in 12 of their 15 Premier League and FA Cup away games this season, including in 2-1 defeats at Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City.
The main bet of this preview centres around the most in-form player in Europe. MARCUS RASHFORD TO SCORE ANYTIME is too big to ignore at odds-against quotes, and should be backed here.
Rashford has scored a whopping 19 times in United's 24 matches since the restart, hitting 10 in 12 league games averaging 0.57 xG per 95 in the process - highlighting how he consistently gets into good scoring positions.
Against a team who ship 2.00 xGA per game when travelling, he will get chances here, so has to be included in the staking plan.
A longshot that appeals comes from the card markets, with JOAO PALHINHA AND LISANDRO MARTINEZ TO BE CARDED an interesting 14/1 double to cheer on.
The man in the middle is Chris Kavanagh, and while he hasn't been explosive of late with his card brandishing, he has the capability to flash plenty.
He's averaged 3.33 cards per game this season, though that average is severely dragged down by his last three outings which saw only three cards dished.
Prior to that though, we saw figures of 3, 4, 3, 9, 4 and 3, and given the magnitude of the game and the averages of both teams this season - with United and Fulham both picking up 2.16 cards per game across all competitions - we may see a few cautions.
It's two of the main protagonists I'm backing, with Martinez and Palhinha having both picked up 10 cards this season, so to get 14/1 about the pair seems large.
Palhinha loves a tackle and will be combative against a United midfield that will progress the ball with runs and via a dropping Bruno Fernandes, while Martinez will likely find himself in a wrestling match with Aleksandr Mitrovic. It's worth a pop.
Manchester United v Fulham best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Marcus Rashford to score anytime at 27/25 (Unibet)
- 1pt Manchester United to win and Both Teams to Score at 21/10 (bet365)
- 0.5pt Joao Palhinha and Lisandro Martinez to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1645 GMT (17/03/23)
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