Manchester United welcome Everton in Saturday's early kick-off and Tom Carnduff thinks the visitors could make the most of Harry Maguire's absence.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Michael Keane to have 1+ shots at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Michael Keane to score anytime at 20/1 (bet365)
Manchester United needed Cristiano Ronaldo to rescue victory against Villarreal in the Champions League - although that very late winner papered over the cracks of what was another poor performance.
The Spanish side won the xG battle comfortably (xG: MUN 1.23 - 2.72 VIL) and deserved to get something out of the game. The one positive here though is that their league form has been better and they should get past an injury-hit Everton side.
Rafa Benitez has issues up front with both Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison sidelined which means Salomón Rondón will take the striker role once again. There will be added emphasis on the wide players - particularly Andros Townsend - to continue their attacking output.
However, Harry Maguire will be a big miss for the home side (if he remains unavailable) and it does give Everton a chance to exploit their aerial advantage. It's an issue for United when their captain is out.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Manchester United 4/9 | Draw 10/3 | Everton 6/1
Çağlar Söyüncü provided a winner at 30/1 when tipped up for Leicester's game at Old Trafford last season and that was with the same reasoning behind it - without Maguire, United are much weaker in the air.
Raphaël Varane's arrival has done something to combat that and he sits joint-first in terms of average aerials won in this United team but his historic numbers and averages don't come close to his centre-back partner. In a side that feels disorganised at times, having that vulnerability in the air can be costly.
Everton have five players posting higher averages than Varane and Pogba - the two United leaders - in aerials won this season. Calvert-Lewin will be missing but the centre-backs and Rondón will be a big threat from set-pieces.
The Toffees have already scored a couple from set-pieces in the Premier League and they have a real chance of getting one here. The best value can be found in the shots market though with one price looking far too generous.
All eyes are usually on Yerry Mina when it comes to attacking set-pieces but the shots statistics don't match up to his 5/6 price. Instead, the 11/8 for MICHAEL KEANE TO HAVE 1+ TOTAL SHOTS is the best play in this game.
The Everton centre-back scored against Burnley and has been averaging one shot per game in the Premier League this season. In 41 minutes against QPR in the Carabao Cup, Keane also managed a shot.
That price is for a shot, not one that is on target, which makes the bet even more appealing. He's historically been going at a shot every two games or better in the Premier League in recent seasons - 0.5 in 2020/21, 0.5 in 2019/20 and 0.9 in 2018/19.
Those averages should mean a price of around even money and we could even push it into odds-on 5/6 territory given Maguire's absence. The 11/8 is too good to turn down in this situation.
With the above statistics in mind, we're also having a small stakes play on KEANE TO SCORE ANYTIME at 20/1. With a shot fancied, there's a gamble to be made on that finding the back of the net.
Keane's averaging 0.15 xG per 95 minutes so far while also posting the same expected assists (xA) number after six games. He's involved in the attacks and already has one goal to his name this term.
Manchester United v Everton best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Michael Keane to have 1+ shots at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts Michael Keane to score anytime at 20/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 0930 BST (30/09/21)
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