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Manchester City vs Inter betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Hakan Çalhanoglu to be shown a card at 13/2 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 23/1
- Manchester City to win
- Hakan Çalhanoglu to be shown a card
- 12+ match corners
Manchester City's quest for a second Champions League title begins with a potentially tricky home encounter against Inter, although Pep Guardiola's men have more than enough about them to secure victory.
They defeated this opponent when ending their long wait for success in 2023 - a repeat of the Istanbul final but a contest that doesn't carry anywhere near the same level of significance.
Inter's Serie A campaign has delivered two wins and two draws so far, the latter coming in both of their away contests, and some bookmakers put them as big as 11/2 outsiders to leave The Etihad with all three points.
It's difficult to see that happening, and while City make little appeal in backing as a single at the prices, I wouldn't hesitate to include them in my Wednesday night accumulator.
What are the best bets?
The state of the result market has pushed me to look into the player options, although I think this could end up being much closer than the odds suggest.
It may be quite competitive, after all this is City's second-toughest game of the League Stage (after PSG away). There's also the slight excitement that comes with playing in what is a new format.
Swedish referee Glenn Nyberg may not be the strictest in Europe but I believe this match-up does have the potential for bookings. The 13/2 available on HAKAN CALHANOGLU TO BE SHOWN A CARD provides some appeal.
A look back on City's previous Champions League campaign delivered an interesting pattern. From their ten games in this competition, five of those saw an opposition defensive midfielder shown a card.
It landed in four of their six group games (two at home and two away), with Sandro Lauper sent off when Young Boys were beaten 3-0 at the Etihad.
Çalhanoglu now operates in a deeper position within the Inter midfield. He was carded nine times in 40 appearances across all competitions last season with two of those in six European outings.
That league campaign delivered an average of 1.50 fouls per 90. The average for cards across his Inter career sits at 0.22 cards per 90.
Considering a number of Inter players sit around the 4/1 and 9/2 marker for a card in this contest, Çalhanoglu represents a good value play, with the prices mentioned there still good enough if it shortens up closer to kick-off.
Team news
Manchester City will be without long-term absentee Oscar Bobb, who has fractured a bone in his leg and is likely to miss the majority of the League Stage.
Nathan Ake is also out with a thigh problem - Guardiola expects to be without the Dutch defender until the October international break.
Winger Savinho was forced off in injury time of the win over Brentford last time out but the City boss issued believes it could have just been cramp.
Phil Foden is closer to a full return having missed recent matches through illness.
Inter, meanwhile, will be without midfielder Tajon Buchanan. Federico Dimarco is also a major doubt after suffering a thigh strain.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City XI: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Akanji, Gvardiol; Rodri; Foden, Silva, De Bruyne, Savinho; Haaland.
Inter XI: Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Çalhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Augusto; Thuram, Martínez.
Match facts
- The only previous European encounter between Manchester City and Internazionale was in the 2023 UEFA Champions League final, won 1-0 by City thanks to a Rodri goal.
- Internazionale have won away at four different English teams in the UEFA Champions League (Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool) and could become the fourth team to win at 5+ English teams, after Barcelona (7), Real Madrid (5) and Bayern Munich (5).
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 23 games in the UEFA Champions League (W16 D7). If they avoid defeat in their first two games of 2024-25, they will equal the longest unbeaten streak by a team in European Cup/UEFA Champions League history (25 games by Manchester United, September 2007-May 2009).
- Internazionale have only lost three of their last 20 UEFA Champions League matches (W11 D6). They’ve only started one of their last nine campaigns with a win, however, beating Spurs 2-1 in 2018-19 (D5 L3).
- Among managers to oversee 50+ games in the UEFA Champions League, Pep Guardiola has the highest win percentage in the competition (63.7% - 109 wins in 171 games).
- Manchester City had the best pass completion rate under high-intensity pressure of any side in the UEFA Champions League last season (89.9%). In fact, their accuracy under high-intensity pressure was better than 30 of the other 31 sides last term for their overall pass completion rate (Real Madrid the exception – 90.2%).
- Among players to make 50+ appearances in the UEFA Champions League, only Neymar (0.37) has a better assists per game ratio than Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne (0.35 – 25 in 72 games).
- Lautaro Martínez has scored in each of the last five UEFA Champions League seasons, with Julio Cruz to only player to score in six consecutive editions of the UEFA Champions League/European Cup for Internazionale (2003-04 to 2008-09).
- Manchester City’s Erling Haaland has scored 41 goals in 39 appearances in the UEFA Champions League to date. Among players with at least five games in the competition, he is the only one who has been able to maintain an average of a goal per game (1.05).
- Internazionale’s Yann Sommer had the highest save percentage of any goalkeeper in the UEFA Champions League in 2023-24 (86% - min. two apps), with the Swiss stopper saving 25 of the 29 shots on target he faced last term.
Odds correct at 1120 BST (17/09/24)
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