Football betting tips: Champions League
0.75pt Rico Lewis to score anytime at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.75pt Rico Lewis 1+ assist at 11/2 (bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Rico Lewis 2+ assists at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Rico Lewis to score and assist at 75/1 (William Hill)
Are Manchester City in crisis? Or is the hysteria hyperbolic?
They have lost five games on the spin and conceded 12 in their last three, four of which came without reply against Tottenham at the weekend.
City are outside the top eight in the Champions League and eight points off the title pace in the Premier League. So, it is hard not to get fanatical because this is bad, especially by Pep Guardiola’s standards.
And yet, win both of their games this week and they are almost back on track, they face Feyenoord at the Etihad on Tuesday and go to Anfield on Sunday. It's just a matter of getting back to winning ways but what is actually the reason for their bad form?
Rodri’s injury is the most obvious, City have looked vulnerable in transition without the Ballon D’Or winner. Their other big hitters have also played a part with Kyle Walker, Ilkay Gundogan, John Stones and Phil Foden (amongst others) all underperforming.
Aside from this, it sounds daft looking at the results but City’s performances haven't actually been that bad. They have been left to rue missed chances in games where they should have been leading comfortably which leads us to another factor: the flaky form of Erling Haaland.
The frontman has started in four of the last five defeats, only netting once from 23 shots and an xG of 5.07, most noticeably missing a penalty against Sporting.
The bad form cannot all be pinned entirely on wasteful finishing but if City can start taking their chances again on Tuesday, perhaps the result will follow and this will breed confidence ahead of the Liverpool game at the weekend.
What are the best bets?
RICO LEWIS will be cursing the wasteful finishing of his team mates.
In the Champions League, Lewis has been the most creative player in terms of chances created (10), completing four key passes (pass leading to a shot) in each of his last three appearances. He has racked up an xA of 1.75 yet only has one assist to show for it.
In the hope City can rediscover their form in front of goal, both Lewis’ price to ASSIST 1+ and ASSIST 2+ goals both appeal against Feyenoord
- CLICK HERE to back Rico Lewis 1+ assist with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Rico Lewis 2+ assist with Sky Bet
Their is also some juice in the right-back's price TO SCORE ANYTIME at 12/1. He had three shots in the win over Slovan Bratislava, squandering a ‘great chance’ (0.28 xG) and has generated 0.54 xG on the continent this season.
In a game where City are odds-on to score three or more, backing Lewis to have a hand in at least one goal appeals. It makes more sense to back separately instead of to score or assist on this occasion as Dutching the stakes across the former returns more profit.
Team news
Pep will definitely be without Oscar Bobb, Mateo Kovacic and Rodri. Tuesday’s match may also come too soon for Ruben Dias and Jeremy Doku who both sat out the defeat by Spurs.
Kevin De Bruyne should return to the starting XI for his first start since mid-September. He will play behind Haaland, and potentially alongside Jack Grealish and Savinho.
As for Feyenoord, Brian Priske will be without eight players. Most noticeably, Chris-Kevin Nadje is suspended and keeper Justin Bijlow and striker Santiago Gimenez are both injured.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City: Ederson; Lewis, Akanji, Stones, Ake; Nunes, Gundogan; Savinho, De Bruyne, Grealish; Haaland
Feyenoord: Wellenreuther; Nieuwkoop, Trauner, Hancko, Smal; Hwang, Zerrouki, Milambo; Moussa, Carranza, Paixao
Match facts
- Manchester City and Feyenoord’s only previous two meetings came in the UEFA Champions League in 2017-18, with Pep Guardiola’s side beating them home (1-0) and away (4-0) in the group stage that season.
- Feyenoord have only won one of their 10 matches against English sides in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (D1 L8), with that victory coming away to Newcastle United in September 2002 (1-0). Indeed, the only two times they’ve avoided defeat (W1 D1) have both been away from home (also a 1-1 draw v Tottenham Hotspur in November 1961).
- Manchester City were beaten by Sporting CP last time out in the UEFA Champions League (1-4), a defeat which ended a 26-game unbeaten run in the competition. Pep Guardiola’s side haven’t lost consecutive Champions League games since September 2018 (a run of four).
- Feyenoord have won both of their away matches in the UEFA Champions League 2024-25 (3-2 v Girona and 3-1 v Benfica). They’ve never previously won three consecutive away games in the European Cup/Champions League.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 33 home matches in the UEFA Champions League (W29 D4). This is the second-longest run of home matches without defeat by a team in the competition, after Barcelona’s 38-match streak between September 2013 and November 2020.
- 56% of Manchester City’s high-intensity pressures in the UEFA Champions League this season have been made in the final third, the highest percentage of any team. Indeed, Pep Guardiola’s side ranks fifth for total high-intensity pressures in the final third this term (447), despite being the team who averages the most possession in the tournament (72%).
- Feyenoord have only kept one clean sheet in their last 19 matches in the UEFA Champions League (2-0 v Celtic in September 2023), conceding 41 goals overall in this run. Meanwhile, Manchester City averages 2.9 goals per home match in the Champions League under Pep Guardiola (124 goals in 43 games).
- Manchester City’s Erling Haaland has been directly involved in 49 goals in 43 appearances in the UEFA Champions League (44 goals, five assists). If he scores or assists in this game, he would reach 50 goal involvements in fewer appearances than any other player in the competition’s history (current record is 45 games, by Ruud van Nistelrooij in 2004).
- 19-year-old Antoni Milambo has scored three goals in three UEFA Champions League games this season, while the only Dutch teenager to score more in a single edition is Patrick Kluivert (4 in 1995-96 for Ajax). In addition, the only player to net more in a single campaign for Feyenoord in the competition is Jon Dahl Tomasson (4 in 1999-00).
- Rico Lewis has created more chances while under high-intensity pressure than any other player in the UEFA Champions League this season (10). In fact, three of the top four ranked players in this category this term play for Manchester City (Lewis 10, Foden 9, Savinho 9 – Florian Wirtz also on 9).
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (25/11/24)
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