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Manchester City vs Arsenal betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 17/20 (William Hill)
1pt Jorginho to be shown a card at 10/3 (bet365, Unibet)
BuildABet @ 11/1
- Jorginho to commit 2+ fouls
- Gabriel Magalhaes to commit 2+ fouls
- Declan Rice to commit 1+ fouls
You don't win Premier League titles in September, but the fine margins we've seen in May highlight how crucial this game may be in deciding our eventual champion.
City finished two points ahead of Arsenal last season, much closer than the five points of the season before, and it's City who've edged ahead in the early exchanges between the two sides who once again dominate the outright market.
Perhaps this burgeoning rivalry and the narrowing of the gap between them explains why the equivalent contest in March was such a dull one. Fear of failure overcame pursuit of success - play it safe and hope you get your moment was the way both sides operated.
As much as we'd love a Super Sunday thriller at this earlier stage of the season, there isn't a great deal to suggest we'll get one this time around either.
🗣️ "We didn't create much, their defence was so compact"
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) March 31, 2024
Pep Guardiola says Manchester City will take the point against Arsenal 🤝 pic.twitter.com/3LvaZNi0VQ
The consequences of defeat remain significant. There are enough games to make it up, of course, but the results of the two games will be looked back upon when one of these two sides lifts the trophy in May. For Arsenal, who suffered the first small blow when drawing with Brighton, losing puts them firmly on the back foot.
Expect phrases such as 'tactically fascinating' to pop up among various social media threads outlining what each coach attempted to secure victory. It's just not a game to rely on if you're looking for end-to-end action.
What are the best bets?
The final whistle on that previous meeting between the two sides presented me with two emotions.
One of relief that it's finally over, the other of fear that we may have seen two more in the semi-finals of the Champions League. Luckily, that didn't happen. Neither made it that far.
I'm not going to side with either team because Arsenal do have the capability of stopping this from becoming any sort of contest. A point will be viewed as a positive one - there isn't huge pressure on the need for victory.
Considering I've not gone the way of selling this as a thriller, the 17/20 available on UNDER 2.5 GOALS therefore delivers the most appeal. The 4/5 and 5/6 with the majority of other bookmakers are also fine prices.
Part of the way Arsenal demonstrated their capability in preventing it becoming an end-to-end contest last season was by stopping the flow of the game as much as they can.
Only two teams averaged fewer fouls per away game than Mikel Arteta's men (10.3) in 23/24, yet they finished the game at the Etihad with 20. Considering it worked in terms of the result, there's every chance of a repeat.
Referee Michael Oliver has shown at least four yellows in all four of his Premier League outings this season - eight when Forest surprised Liverpool last time out - so combining a strict referee with a fouls-led approach should mean cards for the visitors.
After all, Oliver flashed five when officiating this fixture at the Emirates in October, while other 'significant' games have also given us bookings (seven yellows and one red in Liverpool 0-0 Manchester United, three in each of Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City and Tottenham 2-3 Arsenal).
There are a few players who could be of interest to the referee then, but the main candidate in the cards markets comes in the form of JORGINHO TO BE BOOKED.
He was shown a yellow by Oliver in one of the two games last season, and City's even split of vertical attacking thirds could see him under pressure at various times.
There's also his position as a deeper figure in the Arsenal midfield - a prime spot for a tactical foul to stop any potential counter-attacking situations.
Jorginho was booked in his first start of the season - that being the win over Tottenham in their last league game - and he's very likely to feature again here given injury issues for both Mikel Merino and Martin Odegaard.
The Italy international may not have started Thursday's Champions League draw at Atalanta but Arteta isn't going to look towards a system with both forwards in Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz involved from the off.
In what is likely to be a close, low-event contest, fouls could become a prominent feature.
Team news
Manchester City suffered a significant injury blow during their 0-0 draw with Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday night.
Kevin De Bruyne picked up a knock which forced him off at half-time and reports indicate that the playmaker won't be fit enough to feature on Sunday.
Guardiola may turn towards Ilkay Gundogan as his replacement, with Savinho and Phil Foden providing width. Foden came off the bench at half-time in midweek.
Arsenal remain without the influential Odegaard while summer signing Merino is still sidelined.
Jorginho is likely to come into the midfield trio, while former City forward Raheem Sterling will push for a start in place of Gabriel Martinelli on the left side of the Arsenal attack.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City XI: Ederson; Dias, Akanji, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Rodri; Savinho, Silva, Gundogan, Foden; Haaland.
Arsenal XI: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Jorginho, Partey, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli.
Match facts
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League home games against Arsenal (W7 D2) since a 2-0 defeat in January 2015.
- Arsenal earned four points against Manchester City in the Premier League last season, double the amount they had from their previous 15 such meetings with the Citizens (W0 D2 L13).
- Arsenal kept a clean sheet in both Premier League meetings with Man City last season, having conceded at least once in their last 16 against the Citizens beforehand (40 goals in total).
- Arsenal have won 99 of their 211 meetings with Manchester City in all competitions (D47 L65). They’ve only reached triple figures for victories against Everton (111), while it’s the most defeats the Citizens have suffered against an opponent in their history.
- Having won their first four Premier League games this season, Manchester City are looking to become the first team in English top-flight history to win their first five in five different campaigns, previously doing so in 1912-13, 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2023-24.
- Arsenal haven't trailed in any of their last 11 away league games and could become the first side in Premier League history to go 12 successive matches on the road without falling behind in any (Aston Villa – also 11 between March and November 1998).
- Manchester City have won each of their last 13 Premier League games – in the competition’s history, there have only been six cases of a team winning 14+ in a row, with the Citizens (and manager Pep Guardiola) responsible for half of those (18 in 2017, 15 in 2019 and 15 in 2021).
- Man City striker Erling Haaland has scored nine goals in four Premier League games this season. The fewest appearances any player has taken to reach double figures in a single campaign is six, by Mick Quinn in 1992-93 and Haaland himself in 2022-23.
- Man City’s Erling Haaland has scored eight goals in his last three Premier League games, netting hat-tricks against Ipswich and West Ham, and a brace against Brentford. In Premier League history, only Luis Suárez has scored multiple goals in four consecutive appearances (hat-trick and three braces in December 2013).
- Bukayo Saka has been involved in five of Arsenal’s six Premier League goals so far this season (1 goal, 4 assists), assisting a goal in all four games so far. In Premier League history, only Thierry Henry (2004-05) has provided an assist in each of a team’s first five matches in a season.
Odds correct at 1035 BST (20/09/24)
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