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Premier League betting tips: Manchester City v West Ham best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Manchester City v West Ham
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 8/5 (Unibet)
0.5pts Lukasz Fabianski to be shown a card at 20/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Ederson to be shown a card at 19/1 (Sporting Index)
Manchester City v West Ham
- 12:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 2/9 | Draw 21/4 | Away 12/1
While most eyes will be on Leicester's clash with Arsenal and Chelsea facing Manchester United on Sunday, the first game of the Premier League weekend is a contest between the champions-elect and a side sitting in the top-four. David Moyes' Hammers now hold European aspirations as opposed to simply staying in the division.
A 2-0 victory over a poor Monchengladbach side on Wednesday extended City's unbeaten run to 26 games and they are brushing aside the large majority of the teams they are facing. However, West Ham could prove to be a tricky team to break down - they have lost just one of their last eleven in the Premier League.
The top-flight form chart over the last ten games has City top and West Ham second. While the runaway performances of Pep Guardiola's side have, rightly, put them into heavy odds-on favourite, it might not be as convincing as those prices suggests.
City should control the game throughout but they have been involved in some close scorelines during this impressive run of results. Of those 19 games won, 13 have been by a two-goal margin or fewer. Remarkably, only four of City's 12 home league games have seen over 2.5 goals hit.
The last meeting between these two finished 1-1 but that was during City's rough start to the campaign. We'd expect this West Ham side to be well organised as they look to limit chances for the hosts, they have only conceded an Infogol Expected Goals Against figure of above 2.0 once in their last eleven Premier League contests (the defeat to Liverpool).
With those numbers in mind, backing UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks a generous best price of 8/5 with Unibet. 7/5 is available with most other bookmakers and City's strong defensive record should play its part in a low-scoring affair - only two of their last seven home matches in the league have seen three or more scored.
There are two bets in the cards market that I am intrigued by. It's a purely situational bet and it relies on this game being a fairly close contest in the latter stages. Michael Oliver is the official in charge here, and I'm willing to have a small stakes play on LUKASZ FABIANSKI being shown a card.
We're relying on the time-wasting factor, of which there could be some late on with both teams desperate to avoid defeat with their recent form. The West Ham goalkeeper was booked for delaying the game in the closing stages of the recent 0-0 draw away at Fulham.
Oliver has also dished out yellows for time-wasting this season too. Dean Henderson was shown one with Manchester United a goal ahead against Sheffield United and Robin Olsen was also booked in Everton's recent win over Leeds. A disrupted game will suit the Hammers more than City, and if we're heading beyond the 70-minute mark with the score still level, Fabianski will be taking a little longer with his goal kicks.
On the flip side, City's winning run remains important and they nearly conceded in the final few seconds against Monchengladbach on Wednesday night, that again highlights that opportunities are there even if the scores don't suggest so. EDERSON was called into action there and if the hosts are slightly ahead, it is also worth taking the 19/1 best price (16/1 elsewhere) with small stakes on a time-wasting booking.
The City goalkeeper was booked in the 81st minute for time-wasting in the 1-0 win over Southampton. He was also shown a yellow card for rushing out and taking out a player against Burnley, and that is far from the first time that has happened, but a fairly strict referee and a close game could see him in trouble for taking too long with the ball late on.
They are purely situational but I would be far from surprised to see either goalkeeper booked in this game because of the records both teams have going into it. City's winning run and West Ham's European aspirations will have an impact on the game - it could well become a fairly slow contest at times.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Manchester City v West Ham best bets
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 8/5 (Unibet)
0.5pts Lukasz Fabianski to be shown a card at 20/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Ederson to be shown a card at 19/1 (Sporting Index)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (25/02/21)
Opta facts
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League meetings with West Ham (W8 D2) since a 1-2 home loss in September 2015.
- West Ham are looking to avoid defeat in both league meetings with Man City in a Premier League campaign for the first time since 2015-16 (W1 D1). However, the Hammers have lost 10 of their last 11 league visits to the Etihad (W1).
- Since losing 2-5 against Leicester in September, Man City have conceded just three goals in 15 home games in all competitions (W13 D2). The Citizens have won their last six Premier League home games without conceding, with Chelsea the last team to have a longer such run in the competition (9 between April – November 2010).
- Only Man City (33) have won more Premier League points so far in 2021 than West Ham (22). The Hammers have won seven of their nine league games in this calendar year – they didn’t reach their seventh win until their 23rd match in 2020.
- Manchester City are looking to record the sixth ever run of 14 consecutive top-flight victories. This had happened just once across the first 118 seasons of English top-flight football (by Arsenal in 2002), with the last four such runs occurring over the past four campaigns (2x Liverpool, 2x Man City).
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