Football betting tips: Premier League
0.5pts Joao Cancelo to score from outside the area at 22/1
1pt Joao Cancelo to have 1+ assists at 5/1
1pt Ruben Dias to score anytime at 10/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Manchester City v Tottenham
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 3/10 | Draw 4/1 | Away 8/1
Tottenham landed a 16/5 winner when we tipped them to beat Manchester City in their meeting in North London. They are a huge 8/1 here, but given the dominate performances from Pep Guardiola's side in recent months, there is no desire to back Jose Mourinho's men for success again here.
Wednesday's 3-1 victory over Swansea in the FA Cup meant City broke the English top-flight record for consecutive wins in all competitions (15). A few hours later, Spurs were dumped out of the competition by Everton in a 5-4 thriller where the Toffees hit the winner in extra-time.
That result led to an old Mourinho quote from his time at Chelsea resurfacing across social media, where he launched an attack on title rivals Arsenal after they beat Spurs in another nine-goal contest in November 2004.
"5-4 is a hockey score, not a football score," Mourinho said at the time. "In a three-against-three training match, if the score reaches 5-4 I send the players back to the dressing rooms as they are not defending properly.
"So to get a result like that in a game of 11 against 11 is disgraceful."
Well, surely Jose, it's going to be worse for your reputation in the long run when you eventually lose a game 5-4 and you've told people that it's disgraceful?
They won't remember.
We shouldn't expect a similar scoreline here but the result should go the same way. Spurs have lost the mojo had at the start of their campaign. They've won just one of their last five in all competitions and the last three away wins were against Marine, Sheffield United and Wycombe.
In the last two months, they've been beaten by Chelsea, Leicester and Liverpool (twice). Having previously been mentioned as part of the title race, Spurs have now found it difficult to compete with those at the top and City's form will give them so much confidence.
Ilkay Gundogan's value in the goalscorer markets has long gone given his prolific form in front of goal, but there are a few defenders worth targeting following their recent performances. Joao Cancelo delivered an 11/1 winner when we tipped him to score against West Brom and it's worth a small play on the 22/1 available on the full-back netting from outside the area here.
Comfortable on the left or right side of defence, he's been playing like an attacking midfielder for most of the season. His traits going forward are far more noticeable given how advanced he plays. Despite not recording a shot against Liverpool, he had three in each of his three Premier League starts before.
Seven of those nine shots were also from outside the area, including that goal at West Brom. He struck the woodwork against Aston Villa and it's a surprise that he hasn't scored more than once this season. With the majority of his shots coming from distance, it's worth taking the 22/1 on a strike from outside of the box rather than the 9/1 for anytime.
His advanced role has also brought two assists this season and again Betfair provide the best price of 5/1 on a helper here. Cancelo scored and assisted at the Hawthorns but it acts a nice bet to sit alongside the goalscorer selection if it's one or the other. That price doesn't feel like it factors in how strong he is in attack.
Elsewhere in defence, Ruben Dias has made himself undroppable in a team vulnerable to rotation. Regular solid performances means he has played his part in the strong connection with John Stones but the surprise is how he hasn't yet scored this season.
The centre-back is averaging a shot every other game and has come close on numerous occasions to grabbing his first goal in City colours. With a high corner count expected for the hosts, Dias is worth a play at 10/1 to score anytime on Saturday.
City are now the heavy odds-on favourites for the title. Another positive result here will only see those odds shorten and the pressure mount on Mourinho as he finds himself towards the front of the sack race betting.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Manchester City v Tottenham best bets
- Joao Cancelo to score from outside the area at 22/1
- Joao Cancelo to have 1+ assists at 5/1
- Ruben Dias to score anytime at 10/1
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (11/02/21)
Opta facts
- Manchester City have won seven of their last 10 Premier League home matches with Tottenham (D2 L1), though drew 2-2 with them last season at the Etihad.
- Since José Mourinho took over, Spurs have won both of their Premier League meetings with Man City, though both were in matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in February and November 2020.
- Tottenham are looking to win away against both Manchester clubs in a single top-flight season for the first time since 1959-60, following their 6-1 win at Old Trafford earlier this term. The last side to do so in the Premier League was Liverpool in 2008-09, while the last London side to achieve it was Arsenal in 1990-91.
- Since losing 0-2 against Spurs in November, Manchester City have remained unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League matches (W12 D2) and have won the last 10 in a row. The Citizens have shipped just three goals in those 14 games (0.2 per game), having conceded 11 in their first eight this season (1.4 per game).
- Spurs have won just one of their last six Premier League away games (D3 L2), having won four in a row before that. However, they’ve not lost consecutive away league games since a run of three in October 2019 under Mauricio Pochettino.
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